Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 1 to 3 cents higher, soybeans were narrowly mixed, winter wheat futures were 1 to 3 cents lower, spring wheat was mostly 7 cents higher and cotton was 45 to 55 points lower.
As of 11:45 a.m. CT, corn is trading unchanged to fractionally lower, soybeans are 4 to 8 cents lower, SRW wheat is mostly 6 cents lower, HRW wheat is 1 to 2 cents lower, HRS wheat is around 4 cents lower and cotton is 15 to 25 points lower.
Winter wheat production
All wheat: 1.921 billion bu.; trade expected 1.924 billion bu.
— compares with 1.921 billion bu. in May; 1.971 billion bu. in 2024
All winter wheat: 1.382 billion bu.; trade expected 1.388 billion bu.
— compares with 1.382 billion bu. in May; 1.349 billion bu. in 2024
HRW: 782 million bu.; trade expected 788 million bu.
— compares with 784 million bu. in May; 770 million bu. in 2024
SRW: 345 million bu.; trade expected 346 million bu.
— compares with 345 million bu. in May; 342 million bu. in 2024
White winter: 254 million bu.; trade expected 253 million bu.
— compares with 253 million bu. in May; 236 million bu. in 2024
USDA left its winter wheat crop estimate unchanged from last month, making just minor revisions to the production classes. USDA kept its estimates for harvested area and yield unchanged at 25.718 million acres and 53.7 bu. per acre, respectively.
USDA estimated production at 782 million bu. for HRW (down 2 million bu. from last month), 345 million bu. for SRW (unchanged) and 254 million bu. for white winter (up 1 million bu.).
The all-wheat crop projection implies spring wheat production of 539 million bu. between other spring wheat and durum, unchanged from last month. USDA’s first survey-based all-wheat production estimate will be released in July.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.365 billion bu. for 2024-25, down from 1.415 billion bu. in May
— 1.750 billion bu. for 2025-26, down from 1.800 billion bu. in May
Beans: 350 mill1.9ion bu. for 2024-25, unchanged from 350 million bu. in May
— 295 million bu. for 2025-26, unchanged from 295 million bu. in May
Wheat: 841 million bu. for 2024-25, unchanged from 841 million bu. in May
— 898 million bu. for 2025-26, down from 923 million bu. in May
Cotton: 4.4 million bales for 2024-25, down from 4.8 million bales in May
— 4.3 million bales for 2025-26, down from 5.2 million bales in May
USDA’s 2024-25 corn carryover estimate is down 50 million bu. from May and 23 million bu. below the average pre-report trade guess. USDA made no change to old-crop supply and increased estimated exports 50 million bu. to 2.65 billion bu. to account for the cut to ending stocks. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2024-25 at $4.35, steady with last month.
For 2025-26 corn, total supplies are down 50 million bu. due to the cut to beginning stocks. USDA made no changes to the demand-side of the balance sheet, resulting in the 50-million-bu. cut to projected carryover. Ending stocks are 40 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2025-26 at $4.20, unchanged from last month.
USDA’s 2024-25 soybean carryover is unchanged from May and just 1 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no changes to the supply- or demand-side of the old-crop balance sheet. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price for 2024-25 at $9.95, unchanged from May.
For 2025-26 soybeans, USDA made no changes, keeping carryover at 295 million bushels. Ending stocks are 3 million bu. below trade expectations. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price for 2025-26 at $10.25, unchanged from last month.
USDA’s 2024-25 wheat carryover is steady with month-ago and 1 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2024-25 at $5.50, unchanged from last month.
For 2025-26 wheat, carryover is projected down 25 million bu. from May and 26 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no changes on the supply-side of the balance sheet and increased estimated exports 25 million bu. (to 825 million) to account for the cut to carryover. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2025-26 at $5.40, up a dime from May.
USDA’s 2024-25 cotton carryover estimate is down 400,000 bales from last month. USDA made no change to the supply-side of the cotton balance sheet and increased estimated exports 400,000 bales (to 11.5 million) to account for the cut to ending stocks. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2024-25 at 63 cents, unchanged from May.
For 2025-26 cotton, carryover is projected down 900,000 bales from last month and 700,000 bales below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA’s crop projection was cut 500,000 bales to 14 million. USDA left planted acres unchanged from last month at 9.87 million but cut harvested acres 180,000 to 8.19 million. USDA also cut the projected yield by 12 lbs. per acre to 820 pounds. USDA’s note on the supply-side changes: “Planted area as reported in March 31, 2025 Prospective Plantings. Harvested area based on 10-year average abandonment by region, with the Southwest and Delta adjusted to reflect moisture conditions. Yield based on 5-year average yields by region, with the Delta adjusted to reflect delayed planting.” USDA made no change to the demand-side of the balance sheet from last month. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2025-26 at 62 cents, unchanged from May.
Global carryover
Corn: 285.04 MMT for 2024-25, down from 287.29 MMT in May
— 275.24 MMT for 2025-26, down from 277.84 MMT in May
Beans: 124.2 MMT for 2024-25, up from 123.18 MMT in May
— 125.3 MMT for 2025-26, up from 124.33 MMT in May
Wheat: 263.98 MMT for 2024-25, down from 265.21 MMT in May
— 262.76 MMT for 2025-26, down from 265.73 MMT in May
Cotton: 77.29 million bales for 2024-25, down from 78.40 million bales in May
— 76.8 million bales for 2025-26, down from 78.38 million bales in May
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 49.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 49.0 MMT in May
— 48.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 48.5 MMT in May
Brazil beans: 169.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 169.0 MMT in May
— 175.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 175.0 MMT in May
Argentina wheat: 18.54 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 18.54 MMT in May
— 20.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 20.0 MMT in May
Australia wheat: 34.11 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 34.11 MMT in April
— 31.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 31.0 MMT in May
China wheat: 140.1 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 140.1 MMT in April
— 142.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 142.0 MMT in May
Canada wheat: 34.96 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 34.96 MMT in May
— 36.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 36.0 MMT in May
EU wheat: 122.12 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 122.12 MMT in May
— 136.55 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 136.0 MMT in May
Russia wheat: 81.6 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 81.6 MMT in May
— 83.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 83.0 MMT in May
Ukraine wheat: 23.4 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 23.4 MMT in April
— 23.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 23.0 MMT in May
China corn: 294.92 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 294.92 MMT in May
— 295.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 295.0 MMT in May
Argentina corn: 50.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 50.0 MMT in May
— 53.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 53.0 MMT in May
Brazil corn: 130.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 130.0 MMT in May
— 131.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 131.0 MMT in May
Ukraine corn: 26.8 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 26.8 MMT in May
— 30.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 30.5 MMT in May
South Africa corn: 15.75 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 16.0 MMT in May
— 16.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 16.5 MMT in May
China cotton: 32.0 mil. bales for 2024-25, compares with 32.0 mil. bales in May
— 30.0 mil. bales for 2025-26, compares with 29.0 mil. bales in May