The global beef landscape is witnessing a historic changing of the guard. According to recent reporting from Reuters, Brazil has officially surpassed the U.S. as the world’s leading beef producer.
While the U.S. industry grapples with a significant herd contraction, Brazil’s production has defied earlier bearish forecasts to take the top spot on the global stage.
In 2025, U.S. beef production fell by 3.9%, dropping to 11.8 million tons. In stark contrast, Brazil’s production, which analysts at Rabobank previously expected to decline, surged by 0.5% to reach 12.5 million tons in carcass weight equivalent.
And as Mike North of Ever.ag and Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company, told “U.S. Farm Report,” Brazil’s growth isn’t a shock, but it is something that is changing the global dynamics of the beef industry.
The Feed Engine: Why Brazil’s Growth Isn’t a Shock
For many in the industry, Brazil’s ascent is the result of years of aggressive agricultural expansion. Mike North, of Ever.ag, notes the foundation of Brazil’s livestock success is its massive grain production capacity.
“Livestock industries depend on the availability of feed, and let’s look at the track record,” North explains. “They’re continuing to grow bigger and bigger crops each year. As we look at their exports, yes, they’ve become a growing partner to China, especially in our absence, but they have enough there to also feed a growing livestock industry.”
North points out Brazil’s “double-crop” system, planting soybeans followed immediately by a second crop of corn (safrinha), has created a consistent, high-volume feed supply that the U.S. is finding harder to compete with.
“The writing’s kind of been on the wall as they grow more and more soybeans and then backfill that during the second crop with more and more corn,” North says. “The gates are open, and they walk through them. This doesn’t come as a shock.”
However, North warns that volume isn’t everything. Brazil still faces hurdles in global perception.
“It’ll be an interesting thing to see what they do as those cattle leave the feedlot, go to processing, and whether or not they can meet all the phytosanitary concerns that the world demands as that meat leaves the country,” he explains.
A Shift in Market Sentiment: From Bullish to Neutral
For the past several years, Basse has been one of the most vocal bulls in the cattle market. However, the combination of Brazil’s dominance and shifting domestic factors has caused him to re-evaluate his position.
“I’ve been bullish for about the last four years,” Basse admits, “but I’m starting to see where there’s some solutions to the tightness in the beef market in particular. My outlook is starting to be a little more neutral, or let’s say, in a wide-swinging market.”
Basse notes international beef is increasingly filling the void left by the shrinking U.S. herd. Imports from Brazil and Australia are becoming a “solution” to high domestic prices, potentially capping the market’s upside.
“As you look at Australian and Brazilian imports of beef, it is going to be something that will keep this market under the high that we scored last October,” Basse says. “I’d be a little careful here on feeders, because while people are still optimistic, I’m becoming less bullish of cattle just based on imports.”
The “Ozempic” Factor and the Dairy Influence on Supply
Beyond international trade, Basse says internal shifts in the U.S. protein market are also underway. Interestingly, he says that while general protein demand remains high, partially influenced by health trends and weight-loss medications like Ozempic, the U.S. is finding new ways to supplement beef supplies.
“As we look at the dairy herd, we’re keeping back numbers,” Basse says. “We’re seeing more cross-calves being produced by the dairy industry. Between that and the expansion of imports into the United States, the supply picture is changing.”
Looking Toward the Horizon
While Brazil’s production numbers are the headline, several wild cards remain for 2025. Basse points to the upcoming USDA inventory report as a critical data point that will determine the next leg of the market. Additionally, biological threats remain a concern for the coming year.
“Screwworm is something we’ll have to deal with as we turn the page to April or May of next year,” Basse cautions.
For now, the U.S. cattle industry finds itself in a period of transition, watching a southern competitor take the lead while navigating a domestic market that might have already seen its historical highs. Yet, as the U.S. cattle herd remains tight, Brazil could continue to outproduce the U.S., just based on the fact it will take years for the U.S. to rebuild the cattle herd. And some economists think the herd might never get back to cattle numbers the U.S. saw at its highs.