USDA’s June Crop Production and Supply & Demand (WASDE) Reports on Thursday will feature the second winter wheat crop estimate, along with updated old-crop and new-crop balance sheets. Modest changes are expected to winter wheat production and ending stocks. The following pre-report expectations are from a Reuters survey; Bloomberg for cotton.
| Expectations for U.S. Winter Wheat Production |
| All wheat – billion bu. |
| Average est. | 1.924 |
| Range | 1.891 – 1.949 |
| USDA May | 1.921 |
| USDA 2024 | 1.971 |
| |
| Winter wheat – billion bu. |
| Average est. | 1.388 |
| Range | 1.360 – 1.410 |
| USDA May | 1.382 |
| USDA 2024 | 1.349 |
|
| HRW wheat – million bu. |
| Average est. | 788 |
| Range | 768 – 800 |
| USDA May | 784 |
| USDA 2024 | 770 |
|
| SRW wheat – million bu. |
| Average est. | 346 |
| Range | 340 – 355 |
| USDA May | 345 |
| USDA 2024 | 342 |
|
| White winter wheat – million bu. |
| Average est. | 253 |
| Range | 247 – 260 |
| USDA May | 253 |
| USDA 2024 | 236 |
|
| Expectations for U.S. Carryover |
| Corn – billion bushels | |
| 2024-25 | 2025-26 |
| Average est. | 1.392 | 1.792 |
| Range | 1.315 – 1.450 | 1.713 – 1.935 |
| USDA May | 1.415 | 1.800 |
| |
| Soybeans – million bushels | |
| 2024-25 | 2025-26 |
| Average est. | 351 | 298 |
| Range | 340 – 375 | 285 – 335 |
| USDA May | 350 | 295 |
| |
| Wheat – million bushels | |
| 2024-25 | 2025-26 |
| Average est. | 842 | 924 |
| Range | 825 – 856 | 890 – 967 |
| USDA May | 841 | 923 |
| |
| Cotton – million bales | |
| 2024-25 | 2025-26 |
| Average est. | NA | 5.02 |
| Range | NA | 4.02 – 5.43 |
| USDA May | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| Expectations for Global Carryover |
| Corn – MMT |
| 2024-25 | 2025-26 |
| Average est. | NA | 278.80 |
| Range | NA | 276.10 – 285.00 |
| USDA May | 287.65 | 277.84 |
| |
| Soybeans – MMT |
| 2024-25 | 2025-26 |
| Average est. | NA | 124.54 |
| Range | NA | 123.40 – 126.00 |
| USDA May | 122.47 | 124.33 |
| |
| Wheat – MMT |
| 2024-25 | 2025-26 |
| Average est. | NA | 265.06 |
| Range | NA | 254.88 – 270.00 |
| USDA May | 260.70 | 265.73 |
| |
| Cotton – million bales |
| 2024-25 | 2025-26 |
| Average est. | NA | 77.88 |
| Range | NA | 77.00 – 78.88 |
| USDA May | 78.40 | 78.38 |
Perspective: While there is always potential for a surprise in USDA’s monthly reports, the data that is likely to be more market-moving comes at the end of June via the Acreage and Grain Stocks Reports.
