Yesterday the National Weather Service released updated 90-day seasonal outlooks covering May through July. The outlook for temperatures shows a majority of the lower 48 is expected to see warmer than average temperatures, with the highest chances for that development in the central Rockies and the southern Appalachian ranges. The upper Midwest is currently the only area not expected to see a warmer than average summer. This forecast is little changed from last month’s, with the chances for warmer than average temperatures expanding northward as the main change.
The outlook for precipitation shows higher than average rainfall expectations strongly concentrated in the eastern U.S., mostly along the coastal regions. The agency also forecasts the potential for below average rainfall to be greatest along the Northwest Interior. Compared to last month’s forecast, reductions were made to the extent of higher than expected rainfall in the east, coupled with a very slight reduction on the overall area impacted by chances for lower than usual rainfall in the west.
The seasonal drought outlook showed drought is likely to persist in the west, with areas not currently impacted expected to develop drought-like conditions into the summer if patterns hold. Despite the chance for higher temperatures than usual, the Midwest is not expected to develop drought in early summer at this time. Pockets of drought relief are expected across the southeast, although the hill farms in southern Appalachia are not included in that relief due to the very high likelihood of high temperatures.
