The latest ENSO forecast model runs by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggested that La Nina may last longer than previously suggested. The model runs had previously suggested La Nina would weaken greatly in December and dissipate in January, but now the model has delayed that decay another month.
World Weather Inc. says, “The significance of this new forecast is huge for several areas in the world, but first on the list is South America. The longer La Nina lingers the higher the potential will be for another less-than-ideal South America growing season and the higher the potential will be for too much rain to fall in eastern Australia. India will likely have another wet winter and dryness may be an issue again in the central United States during the spring of 2023 if La Nina lasts too long.”
But World Weather also notes: “If La Nina dissipates in the middle of winter some of the U.S. weather concerns should diminish or dissipate and that is a real possibility in 2023.”