GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: 2 to 5 cents lower.
Wheat: 2 to 5 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat weakened overnight after two-sided trade earlier in the session. Price pressure is likely to continue this morning, though selling may be limited as traders await USDA’s Crop Production and Supply & Demand Reports at 11:00 a.m. CT.
USDA’s initial all-wheat production estimate is expected to be 1.915 billion bu. (1.921 billion bu. in June). Ending stocks are expected at – corn: 1.353 billion bu. for 2024-25 (1.365 billion bu. in June); 1.720 billion bu. for 2025-26 (1.750 billion bu. in June); soybeans: 358 million bu. for 2024-25 (350 million bu. in June); 302 million bu. for 2025-26 (295 million bu. in June); wheat: 851 million bu. for 2024-25 (set by June 1 stocks); 895 million bu. for 2025-26 (898 million bu. in June); and cotton: 4.43 million bales for 2025-26 (4.3 million bales in June).
Temps will trend cooler than normal across the central U.S. over the next week, while rains are expected to continue, maintaining favorable conditions for crop development. World Weather Inc. says there are chances for warmer, drier weather during the last two weeks of July into early August, though there will be no blocking ridge, allowing some rainfall across the Corn Belt and Plains.
President Donald Trump announced Thursday evening the U.S. will impose a 35% tariff on imports from Canada, effective Aug. 1. An exclusion for goods covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on trade was expected to stay in place and 10% tariffs on energy and fertilizer were also not set to change, though Trump had not made a final decision on those issues, an administration official said.
USDA reported daily soybean sales of 219,900 MT to Mexico for 2025-26.
CORN: December corn futures are consolidating just above contract lows posted on Wednesday, forming a potential bear flag on the daily chart. Contract-low support is at $4.11 3/4. Below that, bears would target the psychological $4.00 mark, a level the September contract breached. Near-term resistance is layered in the $4.15 to $4.25 area.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures were unable to find sustained buying from Thursday’s corrective gains overnight. Thursday’s low at $10.02 1/4 is initial support, followed by the psychological $10.00 mark. Resistance is layered in the $10.15 to $10.25 range.
WHEAT: December SRW futures failed to find sustained buying overnight after a bullish reversal Thursday. Near-term support extends from Thursday’s low at $5.61 1/4 to the June low at $5.56 3/4. Resistance is layered in the $5.78 to $5.93 area.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Lower.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open under pressure after poor closes on Thursday. August live cattle futures posted a bearish key reversal on Thursday, ending with an outside day down after hitting a contract high earlier in the session. Active followthrough selling could lead to an extended corrective pullback and may pressure cash cattle prices. But given the steep discount to the cash market, traders may continue to view price breaks as a buying opportunity. Cash cattle activity has remained light so far this week, with not enough sales for a true market test. Wholesale beef prices fell $1.79 to $384.66 for Choice and $2.41 to $370.86 for Select on Thursday.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open lower on followthrough selling after a poor finish yesterday. However, a lower open could be met with some buyer interest as the cash hog index halted its recent slide. The CME lean hog index is up a dime to $107.14 as of July 9, ending a seven-day skid that saw prices fall $4.98. July lean hog futures, which expire next Tuesday and are settled against the cash index on July 17, finished 11 cents above today’s cash quote. August hogs finished Thursday at a 91.5-cent discount to the cash index. Pork cutout firmed $2.09 to $114.15 on Thursday, led by a $4.91 rise in primal bellies.