Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading near unchanged, soybeans were steady to 2 cents lower, wheat futures were narrowly mixed and cotton was around 30 points lower.
As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn is trading 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 4 to 6 cents lower, wheat is 6 to 11 cents lower and cotton is around 35 points lower.
Winter wheat production
All wheat: 1.929 billion bu.; trade expected 1.915 billion bu.
— compares with 1.921 billion bu. in June; 1.971 billion bu. in 2024
All winter wheat: 1.345 billion bu.; trade expected 1.362 billion bu.
— compares with 1.382 billion bu. in June; 1.349 billion bu. in 2024
HRW: 755 million bu.; trade expected 773 million bu.
— compares with 782 million bu. in June; 770 million bu. in 2024
SRW: 337 million bu.; trade expected 341 million bu.
— compares with 345 million bu. in June; 342 million bu. in 2024
White winter: 254 million bu.; trade expected 249 million bu.
— compares with 254 million bu. in June; 236 million bu. in 2024
Other spring wheat: 504 million bu.; trade expected 475 million bu.
— compares with 542 million bu. in 2024
Durum wheat: 80 million bu.; trade expected 79 million bu.
— compares with 80 million bu. in 2024
USDA’s first all-wheat production estimate increased 8 million bu. from the June projection and was 14 million bu. higher than analysts expected. The winter wheat crop estimate declined 37 million bu. from last month, though that was more than offset by bigger-than-expected other spring wheat and durum production. USDA estimated the all-wheat yield at 52.6 bu. per acre, up 1 bu. from last month’s projection and 1.4 bu. above last year.
USDA estimated the other spring wheat yield at 51.7 bu. per acre, which would be the second highest behind last year, despite only 50% of the HRS crop being rated “good” to “excellent” as of July 6. Of the total other spring wheat production, HRS is estimated at 469 million bushels.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.340 billion bu. for 2024-25, down from 1.365 billion bu. in June
— 1.660 billion bu. for 2025-26, down from 1.750 billion bu. in June
Beans: 350 million bu. for 2024-25, unchanged from 350 million bu. in June
— 310 million bu. for 2025-26, up from 295 million bu. in June
Wheat: 851 million bu. for 2024-25, up from 841 million bu. in June
— 890 million bu. for 2025-26, down from 898 million bu. in June
Cotton: 4.1 million bales for 2024-25, down from 4.4 million bales in June
— 4.6 million bales for 2025-26, up from 4.3 million bales in June
USDA cut old-crop corn carryover 25 million bu. from last month, but it was 7 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no change on the supply side of the old-crop balance sheet. For 2024-25 demand, USDA cut estimated Feed & Residual use 75 million bu. (to 5.675 billion), left Food, Seed & Industrial use unchanged from last month at 6.89 billion bu. (corn-for-ethanol unchanged at 5.5 billion) and raised estimated exports 100 million bu. (to 2.75 billion). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2024-25 at $4.30, down a nickel from last month.
New-crop corn carryover is down 90 million bu. from last month and is 60 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supplies are down 140 million bu. from last month with beginning stocks down 25 million bu. and the crop projection down 115 million bu. from June due to the lower harvested acreage estimate in the June Acreage Report. Total demand is projected down 50 million bu. from last month with all of the cut in 2025-26 Feed & Residual use (to 5.85 billion bushels). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2025-26 at $4.20, unchanged from last month.
USDA’s old-crop soybean carryover estimate is unchanged from June and is 8 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no change to the old-crop supply. On the demand side, USDA left crush at 2.42 billion bu. but increased estimated exports 15 million bu. (to 1.865 billion). USDA offset that increase in exports with a 15-million-bu. cut to estimated residual use (to 27 million). USDA puts the 2024-25 national average on-farm cash bean price at $10.00, up a nickel from last month.
New-crop bean carryover is up 15 million bu. from last month and is 8 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supply is down 5 million bu. due to a slight downside adjustment in harvested bean acres from the June Acreage Report. USDA increased projected new-crop crush 50 million bu. from June to 2.54 billion bu., but cut exports 70 million bu. to 1.745 billion. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2025-26 at $10.10, down 15 cents from last month.
Old-crop wheat carryover at 851 million bu. was set by the June 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. To get to that level, USDA trimmed 1 million bu. from total supplies. USDA also cut 17 million bu. from estimated Feed & Residual use (103 million bu.) and added 6 million bu. to exports (826 million). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2025-26 at $5.52, up 2 cents from last month.
New-crop wheat carryover is down 8 million bu. from last month and is 5 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supplies are up 17 million bu. due to the bigger beginning stocks and the slight increase in the crop estimate. USDA also increased exports 25 million bu. (to 850 million). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2025-26 at $5.40, unchanged from last month.
USDA’s old-crop cotton carryover is down 300,000 bales from last month. USDA made no change on the supply side of the 2024-25 balance sheet. On the demand side, USDA increased estimated exports 300,000 bales to 11.8 million. USDA left the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2024-25 at 63 cents.
New-crop cotton carryover is up 300,000 bales from last month. USDA raised production due to an increase in harvested acres from the June Acreage Report. USDA made no changes to the demand side of the new-crop balance sheet. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2025-26 at 62 cents, unchanged from last month.
Global carryover
Corn: 284.18 MMT for 2024-25, down from 285.04 MMT in June
— 272.08 MMT for 2025-26, down from 275.24 MMT in June
Beans: 125.12 MMT for 2024-25, up from 124.20 MMT in June
— 126.07 MMT for 2025-26, up from 125.30 MMT in June
Wheat: 263.59 MMT for 2024-25, down from 263.98 MMT in June
— 261.52 MMT for 2025-26, down from 262.76 MMT in June
Cotton: 76.78 million bales for 2024-25, down from 77.29 million bales in June
— 77.32 million bales for 2025-26, up from 76.80 million bales in June
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 49.9 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 49.0 MMT in June
— 48.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 48.5 MMT in June
Brazil beans: 169.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 169.0 MMT in June
— 175.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 175.0 MMT in June
Argentina wheat: 18.54 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 18.54 MMT in June
— 20.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 20.0 MMT in June
Australia wheat: 34.11 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 34.11 MMT in June
— 31.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 31.0 MMT in June
China wheat: 140.1 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 140.1 MMT in June
— 142.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 142.0 MMT in June
Canada wheat: 34.96 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 34.96 MMT in June
— 35.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 36.0 MMT in June
EU wheat: 122.12 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 122.12 MMT in June
— 137.25 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 136.55 MMT in June
Russia wheat: 81.6 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 81.6 MMT in June
— 83.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 83.0 MMT in June
Ukraine wheat: 23.4 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 23.4 MMT in June
— 22.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 23.0 MMT in June
China corn: 294.92 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 294.92 MMT in June
— 295.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 295.0 MMT in June
Argentina corn: 50.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 50.0 MMT in June
— 53.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 53.0 MMT in June
Brazil corn: 132.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 130.0 MMT in June
— 131.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 131.0 MMT in June
Ukraine corn: 26.8 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 26.8 MMT in June
— 30.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 30.5 MMT in June
South Africa corn: 15.75 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 15.75 MMT in June
— 16.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 16.5 MMT in June
China cotton: 32.0 mil. bales for 2024-25, compares with 32.0 mil. bales in June
— 31.0 mil. bales for 2025-26, compares with 30.0 mil. bales in June