Atmospheric conditions remain ENSO-neutral and are likely to remain that way through the remainder of the U.S. growing season. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) puts nearly 90% odds of neutral conditions lasting through August and 56% chances they will persist until October.
CPC said, “The IRI predictions indicate ENSO-neutral is most likely through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2025-26. In contrast, the North American Multi-Model Ensemble favors the onset of La Niña conditions during the Northern Hemisphere fall, though lasting a shorter duration than NOAA’s requirement of five consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons. While the subsurface equatorial Pacific remains above average, easterly trade winds are predicted to strengthen in the coming month, which could portend cooler conditions. In summary, ENSO-neutral is most likely through the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56% chance in August-October). Thereafter, chances of La Niña conditions increase into the fall and winter 2025-26, but remain nearly equal to ENSO-neutral.”