H&P report reflects larger than expected herd contraction
H&P Report: Herd contraction a little greater than expected, no signs of expansion... USDA estimated the U.S. hog herd at 73.8 million head as of Sept. 1, down 1.1 million head (1.4%) from year-ago and 468,000 head smaller than the average pre-report estimate implied. The breeding herd at 6.152 million head declined 38,000 head (0.6%) from year-ago, while the marketing herd at 67.648 million head fell 1.029 million head (1.5%).
|
Hogs & Pigs Report |
USDA |
Average estimate |
|
All hogs and pigs Sept. 1 |
98.6 |
99.2 |
|
Kept for breeding |
99.4 |
99.6 |
|
Kept for marketing |
98.5 |
99.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Market hog inventory |
|
|
|
under 50 lbs. |
98.4 |
99.1 |
|
50 lbs.-119 lbs. |
98.4 |
99.1 |
|
120 lbs.-179 lbs. |
98.8 |
98.9 |
|
Over 180 lbs. |
98.5 |
99.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
Pig crop (June-Aug.) |
98.9 |
99.5 |
|
Pigs per litter (June-Aug.) |
100.0 |
100.3 |
|
Farrowings (June-Aug.) |
99.0 |
99.2 |
|
Farrowing intentions (Sept.-Nov.) |
97.5 |
99.0 |
|
Farrowing intentions (Dec.-Feb.) |
99.4 |
100.5 |
The summer pig crop at 31.947 million head declined 363,000 head (1.1%) from last year. Summer farrowings dropped 1.0% and the number of pigs saved per litter was in line with last year. When combined with the smaller breeding herd, the U.S. hog herd will continue to contract into 2023.
Producers indicated they intend to farrow 2.5% fewer sows this fall and 0.6% fewer during winter. Unless there’s market incentive with sharply higher hog prices, however, we doubt intentions will top those levels, as feed costs will be high.
Market hog inventories signal hog slaughter will run roughly 1.5% under year-ago through next spring.
With every category coming in lower than the average pre-report trade estimate, the report data should support hog futures, especially given the recent heavy selling.
