USDA estimated the U.S. hog herd at 75.137 million head as of June 1, up 246,000 head (0.3%) from year-ago and 520,000 head more than the average pre-report estimate. Market hog inventories increased 274,000 head (0.4%), while the breeding herd contracted 0.5% from year-ago.
| Hogs & Pigs Report | USDA (% of year-ago) | Average estimate (% of year-ago) |
| All hogs on June 1 | 100.3 | 99.6 |
| Kept for breeding | 99.5 | 100.0 |
| Kept for marketing | 100.4 | 99.6 |
| Market hog inventory | ||
| under 50 lbs. | 101.2 | 100.4 |
| 50 lbs.-119 lbs. | 100.1 | 99.8 |
| 120 lbs.-179 lbs. | 100.5 | 98.6 |
| Over 180 lbs. | 99.4 | 99.2 |
| Pig crop (March-May) | 101.3 | 100.9 |
| Pigs per litter (March-May) | 101.6 | 101.1 |
| Farrowings (March-May) | 99.6 | 99.8 |
| Farrowing intentions (June-Aug.) | 99.6 | 99.6 |
| Farrowing intentions (Sept.-Nov.) | 100.7 | 100.7 |
The spring pig crop increased 428,000 head (1.3%), despite a 0.4% reduction in the number of sows farrowed, as pigs per litter expanded 1.6% to a record 11.75 head. Producers indicated they intend to farrow 0.4% fewer sows than year-ago this summer, which fits with the breeding herd figure. But if efficiency in farrowing houses remains at record levels, the summer pig crop could expand from year-ago. Producers indicated intentions to expand farrowings by 0.7% during fall.
Based on market hog inventories, slaughter should run marginally above year-ago through summer and then rise about 1% by fall.
USDA reviewed all inventory numbers from June 2024 through March 2025 using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss and updated import and export data. That produced upward revisions of 170,000 head for the December 2024 market hog inventory and 235,000 head for March 2025 market hogs.
The data is mildly negative compared to pre-report expectations, as the hog herd fractionally expanded instead of the modest contraction analysts anticipated. However, most of this pressure will be more psychological than fundamentally changing. While packers will need to work through a few more slaughter supplies than anticipated during summer and into early fall, it won’t be enough to overwhelm the market.