Good morning!
Grains weaker overnight... Wheat futures led overnight losses in the grain markets to open the week. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 3 cents lower, soybeans are mostly a penny lower and wheat futures are 9 to 11 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is more than 400 points lower and front-month crude oil futures are about 75 cents higher this morning.
Warm week ahead... Temps will run above normal across the Corn Belt, Plains and Delta over the next week to 10 days. Dry conditions are expected from the lower Midwest through the Tennessee River basin, while there will be rain chances late this week for the upper Midwest and Southern Plains. Potential tropical storm eight could bring heavy rains to areas of the Southeast.
Record August NOPA soy crush expected... Analysts expect the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) to report its members crushed 171.3 million bu. of soybeans in August, according to a Reuters survey. That would be down 6.3% from July but up 6.1% from last year and a record for the month. Soyoil stocks at the end of August are expected to total 1.356 billion pounds.
Trump safe after second assassination attempt... Former President Donald Trump is unharmed after Secret Service agents opened fire on a gunman at his West Palm Beach golf club, marking the second apparent assassination attempt against him. The suspect, 58-year-old Ryan Wesley Routh, fled the scene but was arrested soon after. Trump assured supporters he is “safe and well” and remains undeterred.
The week ahead in Washington... The House GOP will try again on funding for fiscal year (FY) 2025, which begins Oct. 1. Last week saw Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) yanking his prior approach, which he knew would not get enough votes in the House and fail in the Senate. The push for a new farm bill also continues, though there won’t be any movement until the funding issue is resolved. The economic focus will be the Fed’s decision on Wednesday whether to start easing monetary policy with an interest rate cut of 25 or 50 basis points. Fed officials will also update their economic projections following the two-day monetary policy meeting. USDA will release its Cattle on Feed Report Friday afternoon.
China’s economic slowdown significantly impacts global ag markets... China’s swelling grain reserves and weakening demand are causing concern, Bloomberg reports, with the effects already notable. This downturn could signal a prolonged challenge for global agriculture with China being the world’s largest consumer of commodities.
China’s industrial production, retail sales add to economic concerns... China’s industrial production rose 4.5% from year-ago in August, marking the fourth straight monthly slowdown and the softest expansion in industrial output since March. China’s retail sales expanded by 2.1% annually last month. Both industrial output and retail sales slowed notably from the previous month, heightening demand concerns and bolstering the case for more aggressive stimulus from Beijing.
China’s August new lending rises less than expected... New bank lending in China jumped less than expected in August after hitting a 15-year low in July. Chinese banks extended 900 billion yuan ($126.86 billion) in new yuan loans in August, above the fifteen-year low of CNY 260 billion in July but the lowest value for August since 2015. Household loans, including mortgages, expanded 190 billion yuan in August after contracting 210 billion yuan in July, while corporate loans rose to 840 billion yuan from 130 billion yuan in July. Outstanding yuan loans rose 8.5% annually in August, down from 8.7% in July. Annual growth of outstanding total social financing, a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, slowed to 8.1% from 8.2% in July.
Investment banks cut China GDP forecasts... Goldman Sachs and Citigroup each lowered their full-year projections for China’s economic growth to 4.7%. Weak economic activity in August has ramped up attention on China’s slow economic recovery and highlighted the need for further stimulus measures to shore up demand. Goldman Sachs maintained its forecast for China’s 2025 GDP growth at 4.3%. Citigroup cut its 2025 year-end forecast for China’s GDP growth to 4.2% from 4.5% due to a lack of major catalysts for domestic demand.
China’s sow herd contracts 5.4%... China’s sow herd stood at 40.41 million head at the end of July, down 5.4% from last year, the agricultural ministry said.
Choice beef falls to five-month low... Wholesale beef prices fell $2.27 for Choice to $304.91 and $1.47 for Select to $294.17 on Friday. While movement has remained strong, averaging 148.8 loads last week, Choice beef dropped to the lowest level since mid-May.
Cash hog fundamentals continue to weaken... The CME lean hog index is down another 48 cents to $84.87 as of Sept. 12, down $8.77 from the seasonal peak on Aug. 1. October lean hog futures finished Friday $6.42 below today’s quote. The pork cutout value dropped 28 cents on Friday to $93.90.
Weekend demand news... Exporters reported no tenders or sales.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
· 10:00 a.m. Weekly Export Inspections — AMS
· 11:00 a.m. Monthly Soybean Crush — NOPA
· 11:00 a.m. Cotton and Wool Outlook: September 2024 — ERS
· 11:00 a.m. Oil Crops Outlook: September 2024 — ERS
· 2:00 p.m. Dairy Monthly Tables — ERS
· 2:00 p.m. Feed Outlook: September 2024 — ERS
· 2:00 p.m. Rice Outlook: September 2024 — ERS
· 2:00 p.m. Wheat Outlook: September 2024 — ERS
· 2:00 p.m. Livestock Historical Track Records — NASS
· 3:00 p.m. Crop Progress — NASS