Good morning!
Varied tone in grains overnight... Corn futures faced followthrough selling overnight, while soybeans modestly rebounded and wheat traded mixed. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 2 to 4 cents lower, soybeans are around a penny higher, winter wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents lower and spring wheat is narrowly mixed. The U.S. dollar index is modestly firmer and front-month crude oil futures are around 25 cents higher.
Court blocks ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, Trump appeals... A three-judge panel at the U.S. Court of International Trade delivered a significant blow to President Donald Trump’s trade agenda on Wednesday, ruling that his sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs and other global levies imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful. The ruling invalidates Trump’s April 2 “reciprocal” tariff order, which included 30% tariffs on Chinese imports, 25% tariffs on select goods from Mexico and Canada and a blanket 10% tariff on most imported goods. It does not affect 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos or auto parts imposed under the Trade Expansion Act’s Section 232. The court concluded that Trump exceeded his legal authority under IEEPA, which does not mention tariffs or grant the president unchecked economic powers absent a clear national emergency. Trump administration filed a notice of appeal. The duration of the appeal process in the Federal Circuit can vary, but such cases typically take several months to a year to resolve. In the meantime, the injunction against the tariffs remains in effect, and the administration may explore alternative legal avenues to reinstate them. Should the decision stand, it could significantly curtail presidential discretion in trade policy and reset the balance of power between Congress and the executive branch.
Trump can offset tariff ruling with other tools... The court ruling blocking Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs represents only a temporary setback to his trade agenda, according to Goldman Sachs. Trump has other options at his disposal to impose levies. He could apply Section 122 tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days or initiate investigations under Section 301, though those would take longer to implement. Also, Goldman Chief U.S. Political Economist Alec Phillips said he doesn’t expect the court’s decision to have a major impact on the fiscal package in Congress, “as tariff revenue was never counted toward offsetting the cost of the package, and most lawmakers never made a clear link between the two issues.”
Export sales data pushed back to Friday... Due to Monday’s holiday, export sales data for the week ended May 22 will be released on Friday morning.
India forecasts record wheat, rice production... India produced a record 117.5 MMT of wheat this year, the ag ministry said, above its March forecast of 115.4 MMT, as higher prices prompted farmers to expand the area planted with high-yielding seed varieties. That would be up 4.3 MMT (3.8%) from last year. However, a leading trade body in the country said the wheat crop was nearly 6.25% lower than the government’s estimate. The ag ministry estimates rice production at a record 149 MMT, up 11.2 MMT (8.1%) from last year.
SovEcon raises Russian wheat forecast... SovEcon raised its 2025-26 Russian wheat export forecast by 1.1 MMT to 40.8 MMT. The firm expects Russia to export 49.4 MMT of grain during the upcoming marketing year, down from an estimated 50.2 MMT this year.
Ukraine hopes to secure new ag export deal with EU... Ukraine hopes to agree new rules for agricultural exports with the European Union by end of July, the country’s ag minister said. The minister did not provide details.
U.S. cancels funding for Moderna HPAI vaccine for humans... The Trump administration has canceled a contract awarded to Moderna for the late-stage development of its highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) vaccine for humans, as well as the right to purchase shots, the drugmaker announced on Wednesday. An Health and Human Services spokesperson said that after a comprehensive internal review, the agency had determined the project did not meet the scientific standards or safety expectations required for continued federal investment. Moderna said it plans to explore alternatives for late-stage development and manufacturing of the vaccine.
WOAH declares Brazil free of FMD... Brazil has been recognized by the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) as a country free of foot-and-mouth disease without vaccination. Meatpacking association Abrafrigo called it a “historic moment” for Brazil’s beef industry after decades of actively promoting vaccination and health controls in livestock. The new health certification positions the country “at a new level in international trade” and could help open up “highly demanding” markets, such as Japan, to Brazilian beef, said the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporters (Abiec). With the new status, the Brazilian government will need to renegotiate several international health certificates.
JBS unveils new Iowa sausage plant... JBS USA announced plans to construct a $135 million sausage production facility in Perry, Iowa. The facility will process approximately 500,000 sows annually, producing around 130 million lbs. of sausage. Construction is slated to begin in the fall of 2025, with operations commencing in late 2026, pending approval by the city council.
Wholesale beef prices continue to surge... Wholesale beef prices rose another $3.57 to $365.42 for Choice and 91 cents to $351.74 for Select on Wednesday. During the past five weeks, Choice beef prices have surged $33.69 to the second highest level behind the 2020 peak and are now nearly $52.00 above last year at this time.
June hogs continue to chop around $100... June lean hog futures continue to chop within a range from $97.00 to $102.00, pivoting around the $100.00 level as traders wait on the cash index to rise seasonally. While the index is climbing, rising another 47 cents to $93.52 as of May 27, the seasonal strengthening has been slow and steady without a big surge.
Overnight demand news... Jordan tendered to buy up to 120,000 MT of optional origin feed barley.
Today’s reports
- 10:00 a.m. Weekly Ethanol Production — EIA
- 1:00 p.m. Agricultural Exchange Rate Data Set — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Egg Products — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Slaughter Weekly — NASS