Crop consultant makes more cuts to South American crop estimates

Extreme weather continues in Brazil with some southern areas of the country staying dry for over 60 days and northern growing regions not seeing any sunshine over that period. As a result, Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his Brazilian soybean crop estimate another 2 MMT to 138 MMT. He lowered his Brazilian corn crop estimate by 1 MMT to 113 MMT. Over the past three weeks, Cordonnier has slashed his Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 6 MMT and his corn crop peg by 3 MMT. 

On Monday, StoneX slashed its Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 11 MMT to 134 MMT.

Brazilian states declare emergencies due to drought, flooding

The government of Mato Grosso do Sul declared an emergency situation due to the lack of rain in the state. A state of emergency was previously declared in Parana due to drought, while some municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul (drought) and Bahia (flooding) also have declared emergencies.

Cordonnier has been hesitant to make cuts to his Argentine soybean crop estimate too much “because the crop was still being planted and in vegetative development.” But with above-normal temps and below-normal rainfall continuing to stress soybeans in northern and eastern areas of the country, he cut his estimate by 3 MMT to 45 MMT. Since he was already at the low end of most private estimates, he left his Argentine corn crop peg at 52 MMT. Over the past three weeks, Cordonnier has cut his Argentine soybean estimate by 5 MMT and his corn peg by 1 MMT. 

Cordonnier also left his soybean estimate for Paraguay at 8 MMT, even though the situation in the country is “bad and getting worse.” He cut his Paraguay soybean estimate by 1.5 MMT the two previous weeks.