Results of the Pro Farmer/Doane June acreage survey signaled there were more acres planted to corn and soybeans than USDA estimated in March. But results weren’t too different than what we found in our March survey. We project total corn and soybean plantings at a record 182.3 million acres, which is the exact total we estimated in March and would be up 8.4 million acres (4.8%) from last year and 2.0 million acres more than the 2017 peak.
Corn plantings up nearly 2.5 million acres from March
Our analysis of survey responses signals producers planted 93.6 million acres to corn this year, up 200,000 acres from our March survey but nearly 2.5 million acres more than USDA originally said were intended. The bulk of those extra acres beyond March intentions, 2.1 million acres, were planted in the 12 Midwest states, based on our survey work. Producers outside those 12 states indicated they planted only 356,000 more acres to corn than they originally intended, which is virtually a rounding error.
Producers in Iowa, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan — states hit hardest by drought — indicated to us they planted a combined 900,000 acres more to corn than USDA estimated in March. Producers in Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri and Ohio also told us they increased their corn plantings by 100,000 acres or more versus USDA’s March intentions.
Soybean plantings up 1.1 million acres from March
Producers indicated to us they planted 88.7 million acres to soybeans this year, down 200,000 acres from what our March survey indicated but up 1.1 million acres from USDA’s spring estimate.
Soybean acres didn’t shift much from March intentions, especially in the 12 Midwestern states, where survey responses showed soybean seedings up a combined 350,000 acres. Outside of the Midwest, soybean seedings are expected to have increased 750,000 acres versus USDA’s March intentions, led by notable jumps in Arkansas and Louisiana.
In the Midwest, our survey indicated producers ramped up soybean seedings most compared with March intentions in Illinois, Missouri, Nebraska and South Dakota.
Fewer other spring wheat acres, slightly more durum
Our survey indicated producers seeded 11.3 million acres to other spring wheat this year, which would be down 440,000 acres from USDA’s March estimate. Producers told us they planted 1.6 million acres to durum, up around 70,000 acres compared with their original intentions. Our survey showed winter wheat acres at nearly 33.1 million, which would mean total wheat seedings of roughly 46.0 million acres. USDA’s March estimate of all wheat seedings was 46.4 million acres.
Cotton acres slipped from March intentions
Our analysis of survey responses signal producers planted 11.9 million acres to cotton this year, down 100,000 acres from USDA’s March intentions. We found some Delta farmers reduced cotton seedings in favor of corn acres versus their original intentions.
Little change on ‘other’ crop acres
Producers told us they planted 7.25 million acres to sorghum this year, up 310,000 acres compared with March intentions. That’s not a surprise given drought in areas of the Southern Plains when spring crops were planted.
Our survey also indicated producers planted 1.325 million acres to sunflowers, up 109,000 acres from USDA’s March estimate. Given drought conditions in the Northern Plains, this also isn’t surprising.
Producers in the South signaled they didn’t plant as much rice as originally intended. Our survey showed rice acres at 2.55 million, down 160,000 acres from March intentions. We project barley acres at 2.55 million acres, down just a fraction from USDA’s March estimate
Major crops area increased 3.2 million acres from March
We project the area planted to the eight major crops — corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, sorghum, barley, oats and rice — at 255.0 million acres. That would be up 3.2 million acres (1.3%) from USDA’s March intentions. Total acres planted to the big four crops (corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton) are expected to rise 9.9 million acres (4.3%) from last year to 240.2 million acres and would be up a combined 3.05 million acres from USDA’s March intentions.
Given strong price rallies into spring, we were shocked that USDA’s March planting intentions pegged all principal crop acreage at only 316.2 million acres. At that time, we projected total crops acreage at 318.4 million acres and our June survey confirmed where we originally believed total acreage would end up this year.