Policy Updates: Most major crops expected to post deeper losses in 2026

In an analysis published yesterday, the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) projects that margins for most of the major U.S. row crops will deteriorate further this marketing year, as producers face elevated input costs and weak export demand.

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Pro Farmer Policy News Markets Update
(Lindsey Pound)
  • Most major crops expected to post deeper losses despite One Big Beautiful Bill boosts coming later (Agri-Pulse): The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) projects that margins for most of the major U.S. row crops will deteriorate further this marketing year, as producers face elevated input costs and weak export demand. In an analysis published yesterday, five of the seven crops analyzed are expected to post larger losses per acre than last year—with cotton and rice hit hardest (losses of roughly $370 and $364/acre respectively). Only soybeans and sorghum are forecasted to improve slightly.

    These mounting losses—estimated at over $50 billion across the past three crop years—are straining farm credit and pushing some producers toward bankruptcy. While the recently enacted “One Big Beautiful Bill” increased funding for commodity, insurance, and export-promotion programs, those enhancements won’t take effect until FY 2026-27. For now, the AFBF is calling for immediate “bridge” assistance to help farmers cover accumulated losses and maintain capital access ahead of the next planting season.

  • USDA to buy $30 million in fresh fruit to boost growers and supply food banks (USDA Press Release): Yesterday, the USDA announced that it will purchase up to $30 million worth of fresh fruit from U.S. farmers—including $15 million in oranges, $10 million in grapefruit, and $5 million in mandarins—through its authority under Section 32 of the Agriculture Act of 1935.

    The initiative is designed to achieve two goals simultaneously: bolster American agricultural producers who may be facing surplus and trade pressures, and channel nutritious fresh fruit into food banks and nutrition-assistance programs across the country. Rollins emphasized that this support both prevents waste of domestic crops and provides healthier options for Americans in need.