A dry, unseasonably warm January has left much of the West staring at one of the leanest snow years in decades, raising red flags for farmers, ranchers and rural communities that depend on mountain snowpack for water. With some farmers facing water allocations near 0%, they say if nothing changes, they’ll be forced to leave valuable acres fallow — simply because they don’t have the irrigation water to support growing crops this year.
According to the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), snow cover across the Western U.S. on Feb. 1 measured just 139,322 square miles — the lowest February 1 extent in the MODIS satellite record, which dates back to 2001.
At the state level, the numbers are just as stark. As of Feb. 1, Oregon, Colorado and Utah have each reported record-low statewide snowpack. NIDIS says widespread SNOTEL monitoring stations in those states date back to the early 1980s, underscoring how unusual this year’s deficit has become.
Major Basins in Trouble From Lack of Snow
Several critical water supply basins are already in severe snow drought, including the Deschutes River Basin, Humboldt River Basin, Yakima River Basin, Rio Grande Basin and the Upper Colorado River Basin. That’s important because these basins feed irrigation systems, municipal water supplies and hydropower infrastructure across the West.
For agriculture, the implications are significant. Snowpack acts as a natural reservoir, storing winter precipitation and releasing it gradually during spring and summer to feed critical irrigation. When that reserve shrinks, so does confidence in irrigation allocations and summer stream flows, with the warning signs already there.
January is typically a cornerstone month for snow accumulation across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Instead, much of the region received 50% or less of normal precipitation. Persistent high-pressure systems brought sunny skies and above-normal temperatures, limiting snow accumulation and even triggering melt in some areas.
On the Ground in Colorado
For Marc Arnusch, a farmer in Keenesburg, Colorado, the snow numbers translate directly into hard planting decisions — ones he’s already forced to face.
“Our issues aren’t so much market-driven. They’re driven by water scarcity,” Arnusch says. “We haven’t had any measurable moisture on our farm since early October. And so we’re really struggling on what it’s going to look like to put a crop out there in the field.”
The drought picture in Colorado is dire. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 73% of the state is faced with dry conditions. More than half of the state is seeing drought.
Arnusch says with drought already in the picture, irrigation will be vital — but that doesn’t look likely. He says his ditch district’s current water allocation sits at 0%.
“It can change. It always has, it always will,” he adds. “But imagine going with a Plan A of your crop plan. You’ve got markets on the other side that are demanding your production. How do you bridge that gap if you can’t produce?”
If conditions don’t improve, Arnusch says he may be forced to prevent plant roughly 75% of his acres this year.
“We will preventative plant, if nothing changes, three-quarters of our farming operation this year because we simply do not have the water. In a worst-case scenario, if our water allocation is zero, what do you grow with that?” he says.
Arnusch operates a 5,000-acre farm, focusing on diversified, high-value and certified seed crops to support local industries. His primary crops include certified seed wheat, certified seed barley, specialty grains for the craft brewing and distilling industry, corn, alfalfa and black-eyed peas.
Arnusch was named 2025 Top Producer of the Year and has built a successful farming career off of his ability to take bold risks while constantly searching for new sources of demand. But he says competition for limited water supplies only adds to the uncertainty this year.
“With the competing interest for water, especially growing crops this close to the Front Range, people tend to come first,” he says.
While his operation has built diversification and vertical integration, along with a network of loyal growers to help fill contracts when local production falls short, he worries about the longer-term impact to not just his farm, but the entire area.
“We had a balance sheet that will help us at least weather this storm, maybe another storm,” Arnusch says. “But I’m getting concerned of what we might erode on our balance sheet maybe two and three years out.”
Shrinking Snow Line and Runoff
Warm conditions have also shifted the snow line in the mountains. Higher elevations are holding snow, but many lower-elevation zones have seen little accumulation or outright melt.
Reduced snow cover at lower elevations can lead to earlier drying of soils and rangeland, increasing the risk of a longer and more intense wildfire season. It can also reduce runoff efficiency as spring arrives, meaning less water ultimately reaches reservoirs and canals.
For producers already watching input costs and water allocations closely, that adds another layer of uncertainty heading into planting season.
Economic Ripple Effects
Snowpack is also an economic engine in the West. Rural Western communities rely on winter recreation, agriculture and energy production tied directly to mountain snow.
The impacts are already being felt in the recreation sector, with ski areas and tourism-dependent towns facing thin coverage and shorter seasons. Water supply concerns are also mounting for agriculture and hydropower generation, sectors that depend on predictable spring runoff.
Meanwhile, other parts of the West have seen a different story. Just weeks ago, California’s snowpack and drought picture looked far more favorable, underscoring how quickly conditions can shift, for better or worse.
A Narrowing Window
A potential pattern shift could bring wetter-than-normal conditions to parts of the West leading into spring; however, forecasts still favor warmer-than-normal temperatures across large areas, which could limit how much new precipitation sticks as snow.
Abundant snowfall over the next couple of months could still reduce the worst impacts. But for now, the West’s snowpack picture is one of historically low coverage at a time of year when mountains should be steadily building their reserves.
For farmers like Arnusch, that means making contingency plans and hoping winter isn’t finished yet.
Wildfires have also ravaged the Plains over the past week. You can see why conditions have been so ripe for the devastating wildfires, and concerns about a warmer-than-normal pattern in those areas.