Official and private forecasters alike see potential for another record-breaking Brazilian soybean crop in 2026, but dicey weather and a strengthening La Niña pattern mean it’s no sure thing.
It’s no secret Brazilian producers reaped a record harvest during the 2024-25 crop year, with soybean production eclipsing the previous record set in 2023-24 by 5.6% at a whopping 171.5 MMT, according to Conab’s final estimate in September. The production increase stemmed not only from a near 3% jump in planted area, but also came amid a 10.3% annual boost to yields. This alone has indisputably driven larger exports from the country, estimated at 112.11 MMT, though global trade tensions have also contributed.
That trend is expected to continue, with Conab forecasting record 2025-26 production at 177.6 MMT (6.53 billion bu.). If realized, it would be a 3.6% increase from 2024-25 amid a 3.7% bump in planted acreage for a total of around 121.2 million acres, and a yield forecast of around 53.9 bushels per acre, which is virtually unchanged from the previous season. Key regions set to drive growth include Brazil’s soybean production powerhouse, Mato Grosso, along with Mato Grosso do Sul and Bahia.
Meanwhile, Conab’s preliminary 2025-26 corn production estimate of 138.2 MMT is down 1% from the previous year, due to expectations for yields to come in below the record set in 2024-25. Brazilian producers are presently sowing the country’s first corn crop, though its output will ultimately amount to around 20% of total annual production. This alone places an elevated focus on safrinha corn plantings, which will begin in early 2026.
Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier holds a similar bias toward another year of record soybean production, with a forecast of 177.0 MMT, just shy of Conab’s current estimate, along with a sizeable corn crop. But mixed weather conditions have recently stirred production concerns.
Current conditions cloud potential
Cordonnier noted this week that persistent dry conditions in east-central areas of Brazil, especially in Mato Grosso and Goias (Brazil’s fourth top-production state) and excessive moisture in parts of far southern Brazil have each caused planting delays and conditions for poor germination and emergence. More recently, heavy rain, wind and hail in the second top-producing state of Parana have caused widespread damage across at least 40 municipalities, or about half of the state, which will certainly result in replanting efforts. The full extent of the damage, which occurred over the weekend, is yet to be determined.
Forecasts call for rainfall in central Brazil this week, which would allow soybean plantings to advance in eastern and northern areas, but Dr. Cordonnier warns weather will need to cooperate for the remainder of the growing season to achieve normal yields. Producers are also growing more worried about potential delays to the safrinha corn and cotton crops due to ongoing first-crop delays.
Recent Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values point to La Niña influence
World Weather Inc. reports that the La Niña influence around the world was very hard to detect up until late October as it struggled to develop. But a recent rise in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) reflects changes in surface air pressure across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The index is based on pressure differences between the Pacific Island of Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. When the pressure over Tahiti is substantially higher than over Australia, the SOI is strongly positive.
When sustained, it is usually a byproduct of La Niña conditions due to surface ocean air pressure changes when water temperatures near the surface of the ocean drop below normal in a La Niña event, according to the forecaster.
Effects of La Niña
While the current setup points to weak effects and short-lived conditions, recent changes in the Pacific Ocean point to a more visible worldwide influence. The strong rise in the SOI this past week suggested that air pressure changes occurred quickly in the region, and the anomalies were finally great enough to start changing world weather patterns.
Those changes have resulted in a significant increase in rainfall predicted in center west and center south Brazil over the next couple of weeks. There is also potential for less-than-usual rain in eastern Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul later this month and above normal precipitation in central and northern Brazil. If it occurs, effects would most likely be felt during December and January, according to Cordonnier.
