Corn: December futures dropped 2 1/4 cents to $5.36 3/4 a bushel, a gain of 2 1/2 cents for the month. Earlier, December rose to $5.48 1/2, the highest intraday price since $5.58 on Aug. 30. Corn futures erased early gains after USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report showed estimated Sept. 1 stocks at 1.236 billion bu., about 81 million bu. higher than expected. A sharp, post-report selloff in soybean futures also weighed on corn. But corn recovered late and posted a small gain for the month. Based on price action back to 1980, there have been 15 years when December corn finished higher in September. In 12 of those years, the contract recorded net gains in October, while only three times it finished lower. The question is whether there’s enough corn demand for a sustained push higher in prices. exports remain a concern. USDA reported net U.S. corn sales for the week ended Sept. 23 totaling 370,400 MT, down from 373,000 MT the previous week and below trade expectations for sales of 400,000 to 900,000 MT.
Soybeans: November soybeans fell 27 3/4 cents, or 2.1%, to $12.56 a bushel, the lowest closing price since $12.52 3/4 on June 17. December soybean meal fell $12.50 to $328.70 per ton, while December soyoil rose 86 points at 58.69 cents a pound, the highest close since Sept. 3. Soybeans tumbled after USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report showed Sept. 1 U.S. soybean stocks totaling 256 million bu., down 51% from last year but 82 million bu. higher than traders expected. USDA also boosted its 2020 soybean crop estimate by 81 million bu., raised harvested area by 300,000 acres (to 82.6 million acres), and increased estimated average yield by 0.8 bu., to 51.0 bu. per acre. Also today, USDA’s weekly export sales report came in at the high end of market expectations for soybeans. Net U.S. weekly soybean sales totaled 1.094 MMT for 2021-22, primarily for China (776,500 MT, including 204,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Trade expectations ranged from 700,000 MT to 1.2 MMT.
Wheat: December SRW wheat futures rose 15 1/4 cents to $7.25 1/2 a bushel, the highest closing price since $7.26 1/4 on Sept. 3. December HRW futures rose 20 cents to $7.31 3/4, the highest closing price since $7.36 3/4 on Aug. 18. December spring wheat rose 9 cents to $9.12 1/2. Winter wheat futures rose after USDA’s updated U.S. harvest and supply estimates came out below trade expectations. In its Small Grains Summary released earlier today, USDA lowered its 2021 all U.S. wheat production figure by a larger than expected 3.0% from its August estimate, to 1.646 billion bu., a drop of almost 10% from last year’s 1.826 billion bu. harvest. Also today, USDA in its Quarterly Grain stocks report estimated Sept. 1 U.S. wheat inventories were a lower than expected 1.780 billion bu., a drop of 18% from 2.158 billion bu. on the same date a year earlier and the lowest Sept. 1 supplies since 2007. Analysts on average expected Sept. 1 stockpiles of about 1.852 billion bu.
Cotton: December cotton futures rose 386 points, or 3.8%, to $1.0580 a pound, the seventh consecutive daily increase. October futures rose 386 points to $1.0780, the highest settlement for a nearby contract since the market topped $1.10 in September 2011. Cotton futures extended a 19% rally from the beginning of last week amid strong global demand and concern over potential weather problems in key U.S. crop regions. The U.S. dollar index eased from its overnight climb to new one-year highs, contributing to the bullish market backdrop. Early today, USDA reported net U.S. cotton sales of 571,400 running bales during the week ended Sept. 23, up 65% from the previous week and up 92% from the average for the previous four weeks. China was the top buyer, at 418,600 RB. Recent forecasts indicate rain may continue to impede harvest and potentially hurt yields in top U.S. growing areas. Frequent rain will fall through Oct. 5 in the U.S. Delta, stalling fieldwork and raising concerns over cotton quality, World Weather Inc. said today. However, “most of the southeastern states will be dry and will see good harvest progress before rain increases Sunday into Tuesday.”
Cattle: December live cattle fell $1.325 to $125.725 per hundredweight, the lowest closing price since May 4. October feeder futures tumbled $2.075 to $152.55. Ongoing cash market weakness weighed on cattle futures. Choice cutout values fell $2.35 today to an average of $294.98, the lowest since early August. Seasonal patterns suggest the breakdown could end soon, but that might not happen amid signs soaring retail prices have strangled consumer demand. Wholesale weakness has worked its way into the cash markets, with live slaughter-ready steers in top feedlot areas averaging $122.66 today, down from an average of $123.64 last week. Also today, USDA reported net U.S. beef sales of 16,100 MT for the week ended Sept. 23, up 2% from the previous week and up 9% from the average for the previous four weeks average. Cattle slaughter so far this week totaled 473,000 head, down 0.8% from the same period last week and down 0.6% from the comparable period in 2020.
Hogs: December lean hogs rose $1.80 to $85.40 per hundredweight, the highest closing price since late July. Hog futures have rallied prices over 16% since Sept. 22 behind stronger exports and improving cash market fundamentals. Early today, USDA reported net weekly U.S. pork export sales of 42,500 MT for the week ending Sept. 23, up 31% from the previous week and up 36% from the average for the previous four weeks. Pork carcass cutout values rose $1.18 today to an average of $116.29, led by a gain of over $14 in bellies. Movement totaled 280 loads. The latest CME lean hog index rose 77 cents to $92.92, the third straight daily rise. Carcass values fell 73 cents to an average of $73.78 on national direct markets. The hog market appears to have begun a long-awaited seasonal upturn, fueled by unexpectedly low numbers in USDA’s Sept. 24 Hogs and Pigs report, which implied fourth-quarter 2021 hog supplies will shrink about 2% from year-ago levels. Meatpackers slaughtered an estimated 1.886 million head of hogs so far this week, up 0.9% from the same period last week but down 2.4% from the same period in 2020, USDA reported.