After the Bell | September 27, 2021

Corn: December corn gained 12 3/4 cents to $5.39 1/2 a bushel, the highest settlement since $5.42 3/4 on Aug. 30. Corn futures erased overnight losses and climbed to a high for the month, boosted by a broad-based upswing in commodity markets. Brent crude oil futures, the global benchmark, reached its highest price since October 2018. USDA’s weekly corn export inspections today showed an increase to 20.4 million bu. for the week ended Sept. 23, still about half the normal pace for this time of year, as U.S. Gulf loadings remain limited. Through the first three weeks of the 2021-22 marketing year, corn inspections were nearly 60% below year-ago. Late today, USDA reported the U.S. corn crop was 18% harvested as of yesterday, up from 10% the previous week and above the five-year average of 15% for this date. Analysts on average expected the crop at about 19% completed. USDA’s Sept. 30 quarterly Grain Stocks report is expected to show Sept. 1 corn stocks at 1.155 billion bushels, which would be down 40% from Sept. 1, 2020, and the smallest Sept. 1 stocks figure since 2013.

Soybeans: November soybean futures rose 2 1/2 cents to $12.87 1/2 a bushel, the highest closing price since Sept. 16. December soymeal rose $1.00 to $340.00 per ton and December soyoil rose 24 points to 58.11 cents a pound. November soybeans rose for the fifth consecutive session as a report of a new China purchase stirred optimism the export outlook will improve as hurricane-damaged grain export capacity at the U.S. Gulf returns to full operations. Early today, USDA reported daily soybean sales of 334,000 MT to China for 2021-22. Since the beginning of August, USDA has reported over 4 MMT of U.S. soybean sales to China or “unknown” destinations (minus recent cancellations). Also today, USDA reported 440,742 MT of soybeans were inspected for export during the week ending Sept. 23, up from 277,297 MT the previous week. Inspections ranged from 150,000 MT to 500,000 MT. The U.S. soybean crop was 16% harvested as of yesterday, up from 6% a week earlier and up from the average for the previous five years of 13%.

Wheat: December SRW wheat fell 1 1/2 cents to $7.22 1/4 a bushel, after hitting a 2 1/2-week earlier in the day. December HRW wheat rose 1 cent to $7.20 3/4 and December spring wheat rose 5 1/2 cents to $9.21 1/2. Some of today’s price weakness was tied to disappointing USDA inspections. During the week ending Sept. 23, U.S. wheat inspected for export totaled 286,087 MT, down from 564,608 MT the previous week and below trade expectations for 400,000 MT to 625,000 MT. Based on inspections reports, U.S. wheat exports so far this marketing year lag last year’s levels by nearly 14%. USDA reported the winter wheat crop was 34% planted at the start of this week, up from 21% the previous week and about 2 percentage points ahead of the five-year average. Planting progress matched trade expectations. USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report is expected to show U.S. wheat supplies as of Sept. 1 at 1.852 billion bu., down 14% from last year and the smallest Sept. 1 wheat stocks number since 2007.

Cotton: December cotton surged 206 points to 98.05 cents a pound, after reaching a contract high at 99.86 cents. October futures settled at 98.91 cents, the highest for a nearby contract since early 2021. December cotton futures have gained 10% over the past week, surprising even the staunchest of bulls. The recent rally in Nymex crude oil futures, which today rallied near $76.00 a barrel an hit the highest levels in over two months, also stirred cotton buying interest, as did reports of big gains in China’s cotton markets. Fundamentally, export demand for U.S. cotton remains solid, with some analysts saying shipments would be even higher if more shipping containers were available for exporting. Weekly U.S. cotton export sales the last three weeks averaged around 376,000 bales, which compares to the seasonal of around 175,000 bales. USDA late today reported 11% of the cotton crop had been harvested by the start of this week, up from 9% the previous week but under the 14% average for this time of year.

Cattle: December live cattle fell 35 cents to $127.80 per hundredweight, down from $133.475 at the end of last month. while November feeder cattle fell $3.00 to $155.575. Feeder cattle futures were pressured by strong gains in corn futures. After corn traded slightly lower overnight, the sharp move to the upside during daytime trade caught feeder cattle traders off guard, prompting the strong price response. Live cattle futures were pressured by feeder market weakness and bearish figures in last Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report. USDA estimated 2.104 million head of cattle were moved into feedlots for fattening last month, up 2.3% from August 2020. Placements were expected to decline 1.0%. Sept. 1 U.S. feedlot inventories, at an estimated 11.234 million head, were down 1.4% from the same date a year earlier. Inventories were expected to decline 2.1%. Boxed beef prices extended a month-long slide, with Choice cutout values down 62 cents today to $302.70, the lowest price since $299.80 on Aug. 9, USDA reports showed.

Hogs: December lean hog futures soared the daily limit of $4.75, or 6.2%, to $81.55 per hundredweight, the highest closing price since $82.10 on Sept. 3. CME lean hogs will trade with an expanded limit of $7.00 tomorrow. Hog futures gapped higher at today’s open and rallied to the highest prices in nearly three weeks after USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report carried unexpected low animal numbers, indicating limited supplies in the months ahead. USDA estimated total U.S. hog inventory as of Sept. 1 at 75.4 million head, down 3.9% from the same date a year earlier and exceeding expectations for a decline of about 1.7%. The number of animals kept for breeding, an indicator of producers’ expansion or contraction trends and of future supplies, was an estimated 6.19 million head, down 2.3%. Particularly bullish was a 6% year-over-year decline in the estimated June-August pig crop. Pork cutout values rose $1.18 today to $111.95, the highest since Aug. 27. National direct market carcasses averaged $75.74, down $1.19 from Friday. The latest CME lean hog index fell 42 cents to $91.47, the lowest since $91.24 on March 17 and about $1.00 above October futures.