Corn: December corn fell 2 1/2 cents to $5.26 3/4 a bushel, down 1/2 cent from last Friday’s close. The corn market hit the pause button this week, but there’s likely to be some price movement next week. Analysts have a recent history of widely missing the mark on USDA’s Grain Stocks report, scheduled for release Sept. 30. Lacking any bullish surprises in that report, bulls could struggle to find sustained buying amid the rapid harvest progress. Reports of a growing number of tar spot, especially in the eastern Corn Belt, has some analysts cutting their corn yield and production forecasts. But that would buck the normal tendency in years when USDA raises its estimates from August to September. USDA’s Oct. 12 Crop Production Report is likely to a long way in determining if the corn market put in an early harvest low or if more price pressure lies ahead.
Soybeans: November soybean futures rose 3/4 cent to $12.85 a bushel, up 1 cent for the week. December soybean meal futures fell $1.10 to $339.00 a ton, down $3.20 from last Friday. December soybean oil futures rose 85 points to 57.87 cents a pound, for a weekly gain of 161 points. November futures rebounded from a three-month low at $12.57 1/2 Sept. 21, but still remain in a 3 1/2-month downtrend on the daily bar chart. Mostly dry Midwest weather will likely enable accelerating harvest next week and into early October. Traders will closely watch export activity. While USDA’s weekly sales yesterday were at the high end of market expectations for soybeans, U.S. bean exports so far in 2021-22 are one-sixth of the levels seen in at the same time in 2020-21. That’s partly due to the Hurricane Ida-inflicted damage to ports in the Gulf of Mexico, but still a worry for the soybean market bulls.
Wheat: December soft red winter wheat futures rose 6 cents to $7.23 3/4 a bushel, up 15 cents for the week and the highest settlement since Sept. 3. December HRW futures fell 1/4 cent to $7.19 3/4, after reaching at two-week high at $7.23 3/4 earlier. December spring wheat futures rose 4 1/2 cents to $9.02 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents on the week. Winter wheat futures turned in a strong performance this week, despite sideways trade in corn and soybean futures. Look for follow-through buying interest in wheat futures early next week, including likely better speculator buying as the near-term chart postures for HRW and SRW futures improved significantly this week. USDA’s Small Grains Summary Sept. 30 is expected to show a cut in U.S. spring wheat harvested acres.
Cotton: December cotton futures rose 353 points to 95.99 cents a pound, up 4.0% from 92.33 cents at the end of last week and the highest settlement in the life of the contract. Cotton futures soared behind technical buying as the market pushed above key moving averages, with weakness in the U.S. dollar also lending support. Speculators appear to have stepped up buying after futures fell to six-week lows at the start of this week. The Sept. 20 sell-off appeared to break an uptrend that began in March, but late-week strength indicates futures may have further upside, perhaps enough to test the contract high at 96.71 cents posted Aug. 17. Further strength in crude oil and the U.S. stock market next week could also lend support to cotton. Traders will watch for harvest results over the month ahead. USDA will update harvest progress Monday. Early this week, USDA reported 9% of the U.S. cotton crop had been harvested as of Sept. 19, below the average of 11% for the previous five years.
Cattle: December live cattle fell 47.5 cents to $128.15 per hundredweight, up 0.5% from $127.525 at the end of last week. November feeder cattle rose 47.5 cents to $158.575. Wholesale beef price direction will be one key to futures direction in the week ahead. Choice cutout values fell $2.28 today to an average of $303.32, down 3.5% for the week and the lowest price since $299.80 on Aug. 9, USDA reports showed. Live slaughter-ready steers in five top U.S. feedlot areas averaged $123.64 today, down from an average of $123.88 last week. Deferred cattle futures may face pressure next week following higher than expected August feedlot placements USDA reported today. In its monthly Cattle on Feed report, USDA estimated 2.104 million head of cattle moved into feedlots for fattening last month, up 2.3% from August 2020. Placements were expected to decline 1.0%. Sept. 1 U.S. feedlot inventories, at an estimated 11.704 million head, were down 1.9% from the same date a year earlier and a reflection of continued industry contraction. Inventories were expected to decline 2.1%, based on the average analyst estimate.
Hogs: December futures rose 30 cents to $76.80, up 2.3% on the week and the highest settlement since Sept. 9. Hog futures settled at the highest levels in over two weeks on ideas cash hog and pork values are stabilizing. USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today may spur a followthrough gains Monday, as numbers fell well short of expectations. The total U.S. inventory as of Sept. 1 was an estimated 75.4 million head, down 3.9% from the same date a year earlier and exceeding trade expectations for a decline of about 1.7%. The number of animals kept for breeding was an estimated 6.19 million head, down 2.3%. Analysts on average expected a decline of 1.1%. The latest CME lean hog index fell 76 cents to $91.89, the lowest since $91.71 March 18. Pork cutout values today surged $6.48 to $110.77, led by jumps of over $16 in hams and over $10 in loins, according to a USDA report. Movement totaled nearly 328 loads. Pork cutout values gained 5.1% this week. Hog slaughter totaled an estimated 2.58 million head this week, up 1.6% from last week, USDA reported.