After the Bell | September 22, 2021
Corn: December corn futures rose 8 1/2 cents to $5.25 1/2 a bushel. Corn futures rose for the first session in five in a corrective bounce fueled in part by easing concern over exports, with grain terminals at the U.S. Gulf partially restarting operations in recent days. Prices fell briefly earlier today after Reuters reported the EPA plans to propose reduced biofuel blending mandates for 2021 and 2022. Ethanol would take the biggest hit, according to the document the Biden administration is reportedly considering. But administration officials also cautioned the numbers are not final and subject to revisions before clearing an interagency review process. USDA’s weekly export sales report tomorrow is expected to show net U.S. corn sales of 600,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. Last week, USDA reported net U.S. corn sales for the week ended Sept. 9 at 246,600 MT, well under trade expectations.
Soybeans: November soybean futures rose 8 3/4 cents to $12.82 3/4 a bushel. December soybean meal ended unchanged at $341.80 per ton and December soybean oil rose 106 points to 56.35 cents a pound. Soybean futures rose for the second consecutive day amid easing concern over U.S. exports and the global economy. Most export terminals at the U.S. Gulf have resumed loadings to some extent and power has been restored to nearly all facilities, Reuters reported. Pressure from the accelerating U.S. harvest will likely limit futures’ upside. USDA’s weekly export sales report tomorrow is expected to show net U.S. soybean sales of 500,000 MT to 1.1 MMT, based on a Reuters survey of analysts.
Wheat: Wheat futures finished 12 to 15 3/4 cents higher in most nearby contracts. December SRW wheat rose 15 1/2 cents to $7.05 3/4 a bushel, December HRW wheat rose 15 1/2 cents to $7.06 and December spring wheat futures rose 15 3/4 cents to $9.03 1/2. Wheat futures rebounded from losses the previous three sessions, with some support from European wheat futures rising to a three-week high. Sustained buyer interest in the wheat market will require stronger export demand. Traders expect USDA to report wheat export sales for the week ended Sept. 16 of 250,000 to 600,000 MT, which would be down from 617,115 MT the previous week. It would likely take a figure at or above the top end of the range of pre-report estimates to encourage active followthrough buying.
Cotton: December cotton futures climbed 84 points to 90.87 cents a pound. Cotton futures continued to recover from sharp losses at the start of this week. The S&P 500 index rose about 1% today, helping restore confidence after concern over a potential financial contagion in China sent global markets tumbling Sept. 20. Ultimately, the cotton outlook reflects anticipated demand strength as the global economy continues its recovery from the pandemic. The industry will get a fresh gauge of export demand strength with USDA’s export sales report tomorrow. Short-term weather updates are unlikely to move cotton prices over the near-term, unless conditions in a major growing area deteriorate rapidly or another major hurricane develops in the U.S. Gulf.
Cattle: October live cattle rose 82.5 cents to $123.275 per hundredweight, while December live cattle rose 75 cents to $128.55. October feeder cattle rose $1.05 to $157.675. Cattle futures were supported by short covering and bargain-hunting, though upside may be limited amid persistent weakness in boxed beef. Choice cutout values fell another $3.54 today to an average of $307.83, the lowest since early August. Cash cattle trade has been quiet early this week, but some trade is reported taking place on a dressed basis in Nebraska at $198.00, which would be around $1.00 lower than last week. Live trade in the south is reported at around $124.00, steady with last week’s trade. Late today, USDA reported an average live steer price at $123.85, down 3 cents from last week's average. Traders await USDA’s weekly export sales tomorrow morning, as well as USDA’s Sept. 24 Cattle on Feed report, which is expected to show continued contraction in U.S. feedlot inventories.
Hogs: October lean hog futures fell 52.5 cents to $83.85 per hundredweight, while December futures fell 22.5 cents to $73.375. Hog futures faded from initial gains as the market extended the sideways trade since last week. Recent weakness in wholesale pork and other cash fundamentals weighed on futures, though pork cutout values rose $4.16 today to an average of $106.92, led by a jump of nearly $16 in hams. Cutouts are still down about 2% since the end of August. The latest CME lean hog index fell 48 cents to $93.56, the lowest since $92.71 on March 19 but still nearly $10.00 above October futures. USDA’s Sept. 24 quarterly Hogs and Pigs report is expected to reflect continued shrinkage of the U.S. herd. Total hog inventory as of Sept. 1 is expected to be down 1.7% from a year earlier, based on a Reuters survey of analysts.
