Corn: December corn futures fell 3/4 cents to $5.40 3/4 a bushel. The corn market bulls put in a decent performance, given losses in soybeans. It appears the corn market traders are looking more to the wheat market for direction, and that’ limiting selling interest in corn as winter wheat futures markets hit six-week highs today before finishing mixed on the day. Early today, USDA reported 808,814 MT of U.S. corn was inspected for export during the week ending Sept. 30, up from an upwardly revised 636,037 MT the previous week. Also today, USDA reported a daily U.S. corn sale of 426,800 metric tons to Mexico during the 2021-22 marketing year.
USDA today reported the U.S. corn harvest at 29% complete as of yesterday, compared to 18% last week and above the five-year average of 22% at this time of year. Progress was in line with trade expectations. Good harvesting weather forecast for the Midwest most of this week should allow harvest to continue to advance rapidly. Harvest and commercial hedge pressure may limit the upside in corn futures in the near term.
Soybeans: November soybeans fell 10 3/4 cents to $12.35 3/4 a bushel, the lowest settlement since $11.86 1/4 on March 30. Soymeal futures finished $2.90 to $3.50 lower, while soyoil ended mixed. Soybean futures continued to show fallout from USDA’s Sept. 1 U.S. stocks estimate, which far exceeded trade expectations. The market is also under seasonal pressure as harvest accelerates and yield reports come in generally strong. Weekly soybean export inspections improved 31 million bu. as more Gulf shipping capacity came back online, though that was down sharply from 76.5 million bu. during the same week last year. USDA said the soybean crop was 34% harvested as of yesterday, up from 16% the previous week and up from the five-year average of 26%.
Wheat: December SRW futures rose 1 1/4 cents to $7.56 1/2 a bushel, the highest closing price since $7.75 on Aug. 16. December HRW futures fell 5 1/4 cents to $7.54 1/4, after earlier rising to $7.64 1/4, the highest intraday price for a nearby contract since May 2014. December spring wheat rose 1 1/4 cent to $9.30 1/4. SRW futures extended last week’s rally on growing concern overtight global supplies, fueled by last week’s USDA Grain Stocks report, in which the agency cut to its estimate for Sept. 1 U.S. stockpiles to a 14-year low. Earlier today, the consultancy SovEcon estimated Russia’s winter wheat seedings could fall 700,000 hectares to 1.2 million hectares from year-ago levels, Reuters reported. Late today, USDA reported 47% of the winter wheat crop was planted as of yesterday, up from 34% the previous week and slightly above the 46% five-year average for this period. Planting progress was slightly short of trade expectations for about 49%.
Cotton: December cotton futures rose 40 points to $1.0493 a pound, down from the contract high at $1.0728 reached Oct. 1. Cotton futures remain near 10-year highs with support today from weakness in the U.S. dollar and rallying Nymex crude oil futures, which hit a seven year-high. Strong exports also contributed to the firm undertone in cotton. USDA reported net weekly U.S. cotton sales of 571,400 running bales for the week ended Sept. 23, up 65% from the previous week and up 92% from the average for the previous four weeks. China was the top buyer, at 418,600 RB. Potential weather-related crop problems in key U.S. growing areas remain in trade focus. West Texas received “too much rain” in some areas over the weekend, while the Delta is expected to remain too wet most of this week, which may raise concern over harvest and quality of the cotton crop, World Weather Inc. said today. The cotton crop was 13% harvested as of yesterday, USDA said, up from 11% the previous week but behind the 19% five-year average.
Cattle: December live cattle rose $2.85 to $128.05 per hundredweight. November feeder cattle rose $2.125 to $155.025. Good rebounds in the cattle futures to start the trading week were encouraging to the bulls, but follow-through price gains will be needed this week to better suggest that near-term market bottoms are in place. The wholesale beef market continues to slide and that does not bode well for bullish cash or futures price action in the near term. Choice boxed beef fell $3.18 to an average of $289.18 on movement of 103 loads. We see cash cattle trade this week coming in at steady-weaker as packers are not likely to pay up. Live steers in five top feedlot areas averaged $122.56 today, equaling last week’s average. Cattle slaughter last week was an estimated 637,000 head, down 0.6% from the week before and down 4.1% from the same week in 2020, USDA reported.
Hogs: December lean hogs fell $2.075 to $83.10 per hundredweight. Hog futures eroded in a corrective setback following last week’s 11.0% rally to two-month highs. Key to near-term price action will be how quickly the corrective selling dries up and/or fresh buying returns. The CME lean hog index is projected to rise 66 cents on tomorrow, which would mean gains in five of the last six days. Given the sharp declines in futures today, October hogs finished $3.25 below the cash index, while December hogs ended at a $10.95 discount. That should limit the downside unless the cash index starts to soften. Pork carcass cutout values fell 99 cents to $112.40, while national direct market carcasses fell 91 cents to $72.10, USDA reported.