Corn: December corn futures recovered from overnight declines and rose 7 cents to $5.32 3/4 a bushel, the highest closing price since $5.33 on Oct. 11. Corn futures rose a third consecutive session on strong export numbers and followthrough from price strength late last week. Recent export strength combined with the U.S. harvest likely past the halfway point has stirred ideas the market has established a near-term low. Earlier today, USDA said 976,218 MT of corn was inspected for export during the week ended Oct. 14, up from an upwardly revised 842,848 MT the previous week. The latest weekly figure topped expectations ranged from 650,000 MT to 850,000 MT. Corn inspections so far in the 2021-22 marketing year are still about 26% below levels for the same period in 2020-21, but the gap is closing. A week earlier, 2021-22 corn inspections were 36% below year-ago levels. USDA reported 52% of the corn harvest was completed as of yesterday, up from 41% a week ago but slightly below trade expectations for about 54%.
Soybeans: November soybeans rose 3 3/4 cents to $12.21 1/2 a bushel supported by stronger than expected export numbers. December soybean meal rose $1.30 to $317.90 per ton. December soyoil rose 73 points to 62.02 cents a pound. The U.S. inspected nearly 2.3 MMT of soybeans for export the week ended Oct. 14, up from 1.74 MMT the previous week. Expectations ranged from 1.6 MMT to 2.1 MMT. The U.S. soybean inspection numbers have improved recently but seasonally they are in line with averages during this time of year, which is typically a stronger export time for U.S. beans. Soyoil was supported as Nymex crude oil futures hit a seven-year high above $83 a barrel. The U.S. soybean harvest was 60% complete as of yesterday, up from 49% a week earlier, USDA reported today. Progress was below trade expectations for harvest to be about 63% complete, based on a Reuters survey of analysts.
Wheat: December HRW wheat futures rose 5 1/4 cents to $7.49 a bushel, the highest closing price since $7.54 1/4 on Oct. 4. December SRW futures rose 2 1/4 cents to $7.36 1/4, the highest settlement since Oct. 7. December spring wheat fell 1 cent to $9.67 1/4. HRW futures settled at a two-week high on spillover support from corn and soybean markets and an outlook for tight global supplies. Prices climbed despite disappointing export figures. USDA reported 139,753 MT of wheat inspected for export during the week ended Oct. 14, down from 446,652 MT the previous week and the lowest weekly total since December 2008. Export inspections are running 13.0% behind year-ago, whereas USDA projects exports will drop 12.0%. While Russian wheat exports have slowed from last year’s pace, Ukraine and Europe are shipping more onto the global market, competing with U.S. supplies. The U.S. winter wheat crop was 70% planted as of yesterday, up from 60% the previous week and close to the five-year average of 72%, USDA said today. Planting progress fell short of trade expectations, which were about 73%.
Cotton: December cotton futures fell 29 points to $1.0704 a pound, modestly extending last week’s 3.0% decline. Futures were pressured by weaker-than- expected economic data out of China, a top buyer of U.S. cotton. China’s economy grew 4.9% in the third quarter, below expectations for a gain of 5.2% and the weakest performance in a year. The China news compounded disappointing export sales last week and fueled concern that high cotton prices may be discouraging buyers. Net U.S. cotton sales for the week ended Oct. 7 totaled 146,700 running bales (RB), down 41% from the previous week and 60 percent from the average for the previous four weeks, USDA reported Oct. 15. Late today, USDA said 28% of the U.S. cotton crop was harvested as of yesterday, up from 20% the previous week but behind the five-year average of 34%.
Cattle: December live cattle futures fell 52.5 cents to $125.45 per hundredweight, while November feeder cattle fell $2.075 to $159.35, the lowest settlement since $158.125 on Oct. 6. Live cattle fell in a corrective pullback from the December contract’s jump to a six-week high last Friday, while strength in corn prices sent feeder cattle near a two-week low. Weak boxed beef prices continued to burden futures, indicating high retail beef prices have curbed consumer demand. Choice cutout values fell 15 cents today to an average of $280.09, near a 2 1/2-month low. Cash trade so far this week has been quiet. Live steers in top U.S. feedlot regions last week averaged $123.84, up 0.7% from the previous week’s average of $122.96 and the second straight weekly gain. Traders await USDA’s next Cattle on Feed report Oct. 22. In the previous report, USDA reported an unexpected, 2.3% year-over-year increase in August feedlot placements.
Hogs: December lean hogs rose 47.5 cents to $78.75 per hundredweight, the highest settlement since $80.175 on Oct. 11. Hog futures were supported by short covering and technical correction after December futures tumbled as much as 9.5% during the first half of the month, but cash fundamentals remained weak. The latest CME lean hog index fell $1.23 at $87.59, the lowest since March 9 but still almost $9.00 above December hog futures. Pork carcass cutouts fell 54 cents today to $100.78, the lowest daily average since $98.30 on March 12. Movement totaled almost 345 loads. Carcasses on a national direct basis fell 9 cents to $67.24. Today’s hog slaughter is estimated at 478,000 head, up from 477,000 both a week ago and a year ago at this time.