After the Bell | October 15, 2021
Corn: December corn rose 9 cents to $5.25 3/4 a bushel but was still down 0.9% for the week for the second consecutive weekly decline. Corn futures extended a corrective bounce from the steep losses earlier this week triggered by USDA’s unexpected hike to its yield and harvest estimates. Signs of improving exports helped boost prices late in the week, and foreign demand likely must show continued strength to generate sustained buying in corn futures. USDA today reported net U.S. corn sales of nearly 1.04 MMT for the week ended Oct. 7, down 18% from the previous week, but up 85% from the average for the previous four weeks. Mexico was a top buyer, at 790,200 MT. Trade expectations ranged from 700,000 MT to 1.6 MMT. U.S. farmers will be winding down harvest over the next few weeks. The crop was 41% harvested as of Oct. 10, ahead of the 31% average for the previous five years. USDA will update harvest progress after the close of trading Oct. 18.
Soybeans: November soybeans rose 11 1/2 cents to $12.17 3/4 a bushel, down 25 1/4 cents for the week. December soybean meal rose $2.50 to $316.60 per ton, down $2.10 on the week. December soybean oil futures rose 85 points to 61.29 cents per pound, down 22 points for the week. USDA reported net weekly U.S. soybean sales totaling 1.15 MMT, up 10% from the previous week and up 9% from the prior-week average, with China a top buyer. USDA also reported daily sales of 396,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations, another 326,750 MT of soybeans “received during the reporting period” for delivery to unknown destinations and 132,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China, all for the 2021-22 marketing year. As the U.S. harvest winds down the next few weeks, focus will shift from the supply side of the ledger to the demand side. Continued good U.S. sales of soybeans abroad in the coming weeks would likely put in a harvest low.
Wheat: December SRW wheat climbed 9 1/4 cents to $7.34 per bushel, matching last week's close. December HRW futures rose 12 3/4 cents to $7.43 3/4, up 0.8% for the week. December spring wheat surged 8 3/4 cents to $9.68 3/4, after posting a contract high for the sixth time in the past eight days. Wheat futures joined corn and soybeans in posting across-the-board gains following strong export sales data. Net weekly U.S. wheat sales totaled 567,600 MT, up 70% from the previous week, up 42% from the prior four-week average and surpassing expectations for 250,000 to 500,000 MT. USDA’s next Crop Progress report Oct. 18 will update seeding and emergence of the winter wheat crop. As of Oct. 10, the winter wheat crop was 60% planted, even with the five-year average for that date.
Cotton: December cotton rose 23 points to $1.0733 per pound, down 3.0% on the week. Weak USDA export sales led cotton futures to end the week on a soft note, suggesting potential for further declines early next week. USDA will update cotton harvest progress after the close of trading Oct. 18. Traders will look toward USDA’s Oct. 21 weekly export sales report, which will cover activity over the week ended Oct. 14, which included last Friday’s price peak. Traders may be anticipating poor sales and shipment results, so a bullish surprise is possible. Few surprises seem likely to be coming regarding the fall cotton harvest and the ultimate size of the U.S. crop, but there is potential for something along those lines in USDA’s next Crop Production and Supply and Demand Reports Nov. 9.
Cattle: December live cattle rose 67.5 cents to $130.975 per hundredweight, up 0.6% on the week for the second consecutive weekly gain and the highest settlement since $132.20 on Sept. 2. November feeder cattle fell 72.5 cents to $161.425, up 0.2% on the week. December live cattle closed at a six-week high and appear poised for a break higher, having settled just under the 100-day moving average around $131.10. A continuation of a slightly firmer tone in cash cattle markets this week could help push futures up toward late-August levels. Live steers today averaged $123.85 in top feedlot regions, up from last week’s average of $122.96. Futures’ upside may be limited by a nearly two-month slump in wholesale beef, which suggests that high retail prices have curbed consumer demand. Choice cutout values fell 8 cents today to $280.24, down from $283.27 at the end of last week.
Hogs: December lean hog futures rose 95 cents to $78.275 per hundredweight, down 4.0% for the week. Hog futures extended a technically-driven tumble a second week and may be poised for further weakness with charts turning bearish and cash fundamentals continuing a soft tone. Pork carcass cutout values fell $4.74 today to $101.32, down from $106.99 at the end of last week. Movement was 334.38 loads. The latest CME lean hog index was down 91 cents at $88.82, the lowest price since March 11 and nearly $11.00 above December lean hogs. Carcass prices on national direct markets today averaged $67.33, down from $69.26 at the end of last week. Strong exports may help keep a floor under futures prices. USDA today reported net weekly U.S. pork sales of 33,500 MT, up 51% from the previous week and up 9% from the four-week average.
