After the Bell | October 14, 2021
Corn: December corn climbed 4 1/2 cents to $5.16 3/4 per bushel. Futures posted a modest bounce from yesterday’s one-month low, supported by strength in soybeans, crude oil and other commodities and a weaker U.S. dollar. Reports that U.S. ethanol producers averaged 1.032 million barrels of output per day during the week ended Oct. 8 probably encouraged bulls, since that was the first week of million-plus production since July. Also, the grain markets’ recent sell-off may have sparked fresh export demand. Tomorrow’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show net U.S. corn sales of 700,000 to 1.6 million metric tons (MMT). Last week, USDA reported net sales of 1.27 MMT for the week ended Sept. 30.
Soybeans: November soybean futures rose 11 cents to $12.06 1/4 per bushel, up from a 6 1/2-month closing low yesterday. December soymeal gained $2.40 to $314.10 per ton, while December soyoil rose 85 points to 60.44 cents per pound. The soy complex posted a corrective bounce behind fresh export news and signs China has returned to the U.S. soybean market. USDA earlier today reported a daily sale of 132,000 metric tons (MT) of soybeans for delivery to “unknown destinations” during the 2021-22 marketing year, which followed yesterday’s announcement of a sale of 330,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China and 198,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations, all for the 2021-22 marketing year. Tomorrow’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show net U.S. soybean sales of 600,000 MT to 1.4 MMT. Last week, USDA reported net sales of 1.04 MMT. Also tomorrow, the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) is expected to report September crushing activity around 155.1 million bu., which would be a three-month low and down from 161.5 million bu. in September 2020.
Wheat: December SRW wheat rose 6 cents to $7.24 3/4 a bushel. December HRW wheat rose 9 1/4 cents to $7.31. Spring wheat futures rose 11 1/4 cents to $9.60, after reaching a contract high at $9.64 1/2. Wheat futures rebounded from two-week lows with support from general commodity market strength, tight global wheat supplies and concern that persistent dryness in the U.S. Plains will hamper establishment of the recently-seeded winter crop. Tomorrow’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 250,000 to 500,000 MT, compared to 333,200 MT in last week’s report.
Cotton: December cotton futures rose 324 points to $1.0710 per pound, up from a two-week closing low yesterday. Cotton futures posted a technically-driven correction from sharp declines over the past week, but the December contract is still down from last week’s close at $1.1060. One key to any further price upside will be whether the market can generate follow-through buying tomorrow, considering concern that prices near 10-year highs will crimp overseas demand. Earlier this week, USDA cut its forecast for Chinese consumption by 1 million bales. Rain showers passing through the Delta this week may limit harvest activity, but should not cause significant quality problems, World Weather Inc. said.
Cattle: December live cattle rose $1.30 to $130.30 per hundredweight, the highest closing price since $130.925 on Sept. 3. November feeder cattle rose $1.175 to $162.15 per hundredweight. Strong gains in equities and in other commodities helped fuel a rally in cattle futures. With today’s gains, the market erased losses from the previous three days, setting up an upside breakout from the month-long consolidation range, if the market shows followthrough buying on Friday. A steady-to-firmer cash cattle market tone this week has also supported futures, with live steers around $124 in the northern and southern Plains markets. Choice cutout values rose 30 cents today to $280.32, but are still down from $283.27 at the end of last week.
Hogs: December hog futures fell 82.5 cents to $77.325 per hundredweight, the lowest closing price since $76.80 on Sept. 24. Hog futures extended a two-week slump on bearish technical patterns and soft cash market fundamentals, even as wholesale pork prices surged. While a shrinking hog herd will limit supplies over the long-term, futures face pressure from a seasonal slaughter upswing and weak autumn demand for many cuts. Pork carcass cutout values rose $1.21 today to an average of $106.06, but are still down nearly $1.00 for the week. Movement totaled 373 loads. The latest CME lean hog index dropped to $89.73, the lowest since mid-March, while national direct carcasses today averaged $68.32, down from $69.26 at the end of last week. Hog slaughter so far this week totaled 1.904 million head, up 0.4% from the same period last week but down 1.9% from the same period in 2020.
