After the Bell | July 30, 2021
Corn: December corn futures closed down 11 1/4 cents at $5.45 1/4 a bushel, up 2 1/4 cents for the week. Weather ideas for the Corn Belt turned a bit more bearish today, amid expectations recent rains in parts of the Midwest and a cooler outlook will boost crop development. Much of the Midwest will be cooler than normal through the middle of next week, said World Weather. However, “rains will be infrequent enough during the next two weeks that much of the Midwest will be significantly drier by Aug. 13 than today.” Weather updates come Monday morning will drive price action early next week. However, weather for the majority of the U.S. corn crop will become a bit less critical after the first week in August and a potential 15-billion-bushel U.S. corn crop looms. Bulls may have their work cut out for them next week to keep prices at present levels.
Soybeans: November soybeans fell 28 1/2 cents to $13.49 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents drop from last week’s close. December soybean oil futures tumbled 1.67 cents to 62.67 cents a pound, while December soymeal sank $5.50 to $353.90 per ton. Some areas of the Corn Belt are expected to receive moderate rains late this week, with regional temperatures reportedly set to fall below normal next week. The prospect of improved conditions apparently triggered active selling to end the week. Moreover, the Friday drop seems likely to spur technical selling early next week, although western and northern areas of the Corn Belt that have suffered most from droughty conditions this summer seem unlikely to get much short-term relief.
Wheat: December SRW wheat slipped 3/4 cent to $7.13 per bushel, while December HRW fell 1 cent to $6.84 1/4 and December HRS wheat dropped 12 1/4 cents to $8.91. The three-day Wheat Quality Council tour of North Dakota HRS wheat fields projected an average yield of 29.4 bushels per acre, which fell far short of historical norms and was the lowest in tour history. However, the fact that the total didn’t fall significantly from those found the first day probably disappointed wheat market bulls. Selling spilling over from the corn and soybean pits likely weighed on Friday trading as well.
Cotton: December cotton futures fell 92 points to 89.39 cents, down 27 points on the week. Friday saw some routine profit-taking pressure heading into the weekend, after cotton futures prices hit contract highs earlier this week. However, bulls may be back in a buying mood early next week as the fundamental and technical postures for the cotton market remain mostly bullish. The U.S. stock market sees its major indexes trading not far below their recent record highs, and that suggests good consumer confidence and better demand for the fiber. Crude oil has rebounded from July lows, a friendly outside market force for cotton. South Texas and the Coastal Bend are forecast to see some much-needed drying during the next week that will support better cotton maturation and early season harvesting.
Hogs: August lean hog futures fell 10 cents to $106.20 per hundredweight, down from $107.35 at the end of last week. October lean hogs fell 95 cents to $88.025, the lowest closing price since $87.325 on July 12. Hog futures’ soft performance at the end of this week eroded the near-term technical outlook, but stronger retail demand and firm wholesale pork prices may limit further declines. Carcass cutout values at midday today averaged $124.97, up 2.1% for the week and near six-week highs, according to USDA data. Carcasses on national direct markets yesterday ranged from $98.56 to $107.00, compared to $104.59 at the end of last week.
Cattle: August live cattle futures fell 42.5 cents to $122.075 per hundredweight, up from $121.50 at the end of last week, while October live cattle fell 95 cents to $127.20, up marginally from $127.15 a week ago. August feeder cattle fell 32.5 cents to $158.175, down from $160.075 at the end of last week. Cattle futures’ pullback from three-week highs softened the market’s technical posture, but generally firm cash fundamentals may limit further downside. Cash cattle trade so far this week has matched last week’s action, with the western Corn Belt leading gains. Choice cutout values at midday averaged $278.82, up 4.6% from the end of last week and the eighth consecutive daily gain since the market hit a 3 1/2-month low last week.
