After the Bell | July 22, 2021
Corn: Futures battled back to end in the upper half of today’s trading range, but December still fell 7 1/4 cents to $5.64 1/2 a bushel. Corn futures were caught in a wave of broad-based selling across the grain and soy complex today. Funds were active sellers on the day. Forecasts continue to call for hot, dry conditions over the next week, which will increase crop stress in the driest areas of the northwestern Corn Belt. Forecast models indicate cooler, wetter weather will be seen in the second week of the outlook. Weekly corn export sales data was disappointing, with a net sales reduction of 88,500 MT for 2020-21 and net sales of just 47,700 MT for 2021-22. The numbers included net reductions of 159,971 MT to China for the current marketing year, and marked the fourth straight week of net reductions for old-crop corn sales to China, totaling 306,200 MT during that span.
Soybeans: November soybean futures fell 27 1/2 cents to $13.62 1/4 a bu., the lowest closing price since July 13. August soybean meal futures fell $6.60 to $363.20 per ton, and August soybean oil futures fell 46 points to 65.00 cents. The soy complex was burdened by lackluster weekly export sales and some forecasts indicating greater rain prospects for dry parts of the Midwest. Starting tomorrow, there will be regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms in the northern and eastern Midwest, World Weather said, adding “the driest areas in the northwest will see showers on occasion and some crops should benefit from the moisture.” USDA today reported net soybean sales for the week ended July 15 of 62,000 MT for 2020-21, down 22% from the prior four-week average. For 2021-22, net sales totaled 176,300 MT. Both figures were in line with expectations.
Wheat: September SRW futures fell 18 1/2 cents to $6.92 1/4 a bushel. September HRW fell 15 cents to $6.53 3/4. September spring wheat rose 6 1/4 cents to $9.04, after earlier falling as low as $8.71. HRW and SRW futures fell for the first time in seven sessions amid profit-taking pressure following recent sharp gains. Spring wheat fell sharply early in the day but bounced back strong, as heat and dryness in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies continue to shrink the crop’s harvest prospects. USDA’s weekly export sales report today was within trade expectations for wheat. For the week ended July 15, net weekly wheat sales of 473,200 MT for 2021-22 were up 11% from the previous week and 44% from the prior four-week average.
Cotton: Cotton futures finished well off session highs but in the upper end of today’s range with gains of 103 to 118 points through the March contract. Cotton futures strengthened today in the face of broad-based selling in the grain and soy markets and not much positive news from other outside markets. Initial support came from expectations China will release import quotas, opening the door for more Chinese purchases. Weekly cotton export sales were also strong, especially for new-crop at 251,900 bales. China was the buyer of 13,162 bales for 2020-21 and 13,860 bales for 2021-22. China also was the destination for 22,200 bales of U.S. cotton shipments for the week.
Hogs: October lean hog futures closed the session down $0.675 at $91.725 per hundredweight after hitting a five-week high early on. August futures rose 7.5 cents to $106.65. Cash hogs weakened today, with the national direct average price down 71 cents. Selling interest in futures was tempered as today’s noon pork report showed cutout values rose another $2.54, led by gains in hams, pushing the benchmark to its highest point since June. August lean hog futures remain at a discount to the CME lean hog index, which climbed to $112.34 for the two days ended July 20. USDA reported pork export sales of 24,500 MT for the week ending July 15, up notably from last week but down 12% from the prior four-week average. Pork exports of 30,800 MT were in line with recent tallies.
Cattle: October live cattle futures closed up $1.425 at $126.675 per hundredweight and October feeder futures gained $1.525 to $162.625. Futures markets saw buying interest as cash fundamentals improved and as corn futures fell. Choice cutout values at noon today rose $1.07, and movement was decent at 84 loads. Weekly USDA export sales today were also friendly, as U.S. beef export sales of 25,100 MT for 2021 were up 63% from the prior four-week average. Exports also hit a marketing-year high of 21,400 MT. Friday afternoon’s USDA monthly Cattle on Feed and biannual Cattle Inventory Reports are expected to show contraction in the U.S. cattle herd. The July 1 feedlot inventory is expected to be down about 1% from year-earlier levels, and the total U.S. cattle inventory is expected to be down around 0.5%. Feedlot placements in June are expected to have declined about 4.1%.
