Corn: July futures today fell 22 1/2 cents to $6.97 1/4 a bushel, up 9.5% from $6.36 1/2 at the close of last week. December fell 9 1/4 cents to $5.79 3/4, up almost 12% from $5.19 1/4 at the end of last week. Midwest weather will remain the primary driver as the U.S. corn crop nears its critical pollination stage. USDA’s unexpectedly low corn acreage estimate stoked concern over dry soils in the northwest Corn Belt and tightening the supply outlook for 2022. The eastern Corn Belt will see two more weeks of favorable conditions for crop development, World Weather Inc. said. But in the mostly dry western Corn Belt, rain “will be too light and too infrequent to prevent continued drying and rising levels of crop stress, while rising temperatures into next week will accelerate increases in crop stress,” World Weather said. USDA’s next weekly crop progress report July 6 will indicate whether recent Midwest rains benefitted corn.
Soybeans: July soybeans closed up 5 cents at $14.51 3/4 today and November futures were up 3 1/2 cents at $13.99. On the week, November futures gained $1.29 1/4. December soybean meal futures fell $0.40 at $388.30 and December soybean oil prices rose 79 points to 62.28 cents. The weather market in soybeans returned this week to revive the bulls. Friday’s forecasts were not as bullish but certainly not bearish, and thus the pause in upside price action Friday. World Weather said net drying is expected in the western Corn Belt in the coming days, despite scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be warm this weekend and briefly cooler next week and then warm again during the second week of the forecast. Especially impressive this week was the rebound in the soybean meal futures market, which implies that market may no longer be a drag on soybean prices in the near term.
Wheat: September SRW wheat ended the week 22 cents higher at $6.52 3/4 a bushel. September HRW wheat ended at $6.19 1/4, up 10 1/4 cents from a week earlier, while September HRS futures settled 28 3/4 cents higher on the week at $8.36 3/4. The ongoing winter wheat harvest continues exerting downward pressure upon prices as supplies are rebuilt, although the worsening drought in the northwest Corn Belt is still tending to push spring wheat prices upward. Traders will focus on next Tuesday’s weekly USDA Crop Progress report for both spring wheat conditions and winter-wheat harvest progress, then shift to the weekly Export Sales report next Friday.
Cotton: December futures ended at 86.97 cents a pound, up 1.07 from yesterday but down slightly from a week ago. Forecasts for plentiful rain over the main Texas cotton-growing area through the first half of July sent cotton futures tumbling this week, despite a significant USDA cut to its planted acreage estimate. Traders will be watching weather developments and crop progress results to see if those forecasts prove accurate. They’ll also focus on export sales data. History suggests seasonal weakness in the weekly totals, so bulls may have a tough time generating fresh upward momentum.
Hogs: July lean hog futures closed the day Friday up $1.35 at $108.65 and August futures edged down 7.5 cents at $100.225 and on the week rose $0.55. August lean hog futures prices closed at a technically bearish weekly low close Friday, suggesting some follow-through selling pressure next Tuesday. Friday’s noon pork report was uninspiring to the bulls, with cutout value up 32 cents but on decent movement of 181.90 loads. Bulls will be looking for a recovery in wholesale pork prices next week, as hog supplies are tighter and hog weights have declined in the latest week.
Cattle: August live cattle fell $1.575 to $122, down 0.7% from last week’s close of $122.80, while August feeder cattle rose 72.5 cents to $157.05, down 1.6% from $159.55 at the end of last week. Cattle futures may continue grinding away within the recent price range barring any surprises in the cash market. Cash cattle markets ended the week on a slightly soft tone ahead of the long holiday weekend. Feeder futures may face more pressure if corn prices continue to rally. Cash cattle are still trading near historically high levels. Live steers early today ranged from $124.02 to $126.72 in five top U.S. cattle markets yesterday. By comparison, steers averaged $125.47 last week, USDA reported.