Corn: Corn futures faded into the close to finish 4 1/4 to 8 1/4 cents lower through the July 2022 contract. December corn dropped 4 1/4 cents today to $5.52, though that was up 35 cents for the week. Weather will be the focal point next week as heat is expected to build, especially in the northwestern Corn Belt, where extreme temps are likely. Despite warmer temps, conditions are expected to remain favorable across much of the rest of the major corn-growing areas. Traders must decide if the building stress in the northwestern Corn Belt is enough to push prices higher or if there are enough good areas to press the market lower.
Soybeans: November soybean futures closed the day up 11 3/4 cents at $13.91 3/4 today, nearer the session low. Still, prices Friday closed at a technically bullish weekly high close. For the week, November beans gained 62 1/2 cents. December soybean meal futures ended Friday by closing up $2.40 at $366.20 and for the week rose $7.30. December soybean oil futures rose 73 points today to close at 65.22 cents, hitting a five-week high and closing at a bullish weekly high close today. For the week, December bean oil rose 428 points. The bulls closed out this week strong, which suggests followthrough buying interest early next week, especially from the funds as the near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal and bean oil improved this week. Mid-July finds a weather market returning to soybean futures, and weather will be the main focus next week.
Wheat: December soft red winter wheat futures closed the day Friday up 21 cents at $6.99 3/4, hitting a five-week high and closing at a technically bullish weekly high close. For the week, December SRW gained a solid 76 cents. December hard red winter wheat futures ended the day up 11 1/4 cents at $6.62 and also closed at a bullish weekly high close. On the week, December HRW gained 57 cents. December spring wheat futures advanced 24 1/2 cents to $9.05 1/2 Friday, which marked a 98 1/4 weekly surge. Typically in the middle of summer the wheat futures market is a follower of corn and soybeans. But this season, wheat could very much play the lead role in grain market price action. The spring wheat crop continues to get scorched with nearby futures prices this week moving well above $9.00. Spring wheat will continue to lead the wheat flavors.
Cotton: Cotton futures ended high-range with gains of 57 to 88 points through the May contract. December cotton posted the highest close today in the lifetime of the contract at 89.93 cents, up 212 points for the week. Bulls have momentum on their side, which could lead to followthrough buying early next week, especially if the grain and soy markets continue to strengthen. But historically, cotton futures haven’t spent much time above 90.00 cents, so there’s risk current price levels could choke off buying. Cotton crop ratings are above normal and the Texas crop has improved amid beneficial weather, so there aren’t crop concerns to push prices higher.
Hogs: Rising cash and wholesale values boosted hog futures Friday, with the nearby August contract advancing $1.35 to $105.65. That marked a rise of $4.075 from the previous Friday. USDA estimated this week’s hog slaughter at 2.280 million head, which topped last week’s holiday-reduced total by 18.6%. But it fell 10.4% short of the inflated mid-July 2020 total. We expect a more modest annual reduction next week, but the industry is fulfilling ideas that hog slaughter and pork production are at or near annual lows. Meanwhile, pork demand is apparently proving quite vigorous, as indicated by the noon pork cutout quote jumping $3.15 to $121.78 on almost unanimous gains in primal pork values (with a dip in loin prices being the only exception). Seasonal patterns suggest sustained strength next week.
Cattle: Cattle futures slumped Friday on disappointing cash and wholesale news, while feeders declined in response to fresh grain and soy strength. August cattle settled 95 cents lower at $120.175, but that represented a 95-cent gain from the previous Friday’s close. August feeders fell $1.75 to $155.625 to end the week, which marked a $3.55 weekly loss. Disappointment with cash trading later in the week after significant Monday action at moderately higher levels disappointed cattle bulls. Continued wholesale losses also crushed hopes for stabilizing and/or rebounding beef prices and improved packer demand. Traders seem likely to anticipate more of the same into late July, especially if the recent grain and soy rally persists.