After the Bell | February 18, 2022
Corn: March corn futures rose 4 1/4 cents to $6.54 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents for the week. December futures rose 1 1/4 cent to $5.97 3/4 after posting a contract high at $5.99 1/2. Corn ended the week near seven-month highs behind spillover support from gains in soybeans and ongoing concerns that a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine my disrupt global grain trade. Russia/Ukraine tensions will likely be the key price influencer for corn futures following the three-day weekend, along with South American weather and speculative money flow. If market strength carries over into next week, bulls may aim for a test of the March contract’s high at $6.62 3/4, posted Feb. 10.
Soybeans: March soybean futures rose 9 1/2 cents to $16.01 1/2, up 18 1/2 cents for the week and the first close above $16.00 for nearby soybeans since mid-May last year. March soybean meal fell $1.30 to $447.90 per ton, down $8.70 for the week. March soybean oil rose 76 points to 67.57 cents per pound, the highest close for a nearby contract since mid-July. Soybean futures rose for the third consecutive week on fresh export business and expectations crop shortfalls in South America will drive more overseas demand to the United States. South America’s shrinking production outlook has ignited a flurry of purchases from China and others over the past three weeks.
Wheat: March SRW wheat dropped 1 cent to $7.97, down 3/4 cent on the week. March HRW wheat firmed 12 1/4 cents to $8.35 1/4, up 11 cents for the week. March spring wheat futures rose 3 1/2 cents to $9.60 3/4, down 3/4 cent for the week. Attention next week will remain squarely on the Russia/Ukraine standoff. Some believe if Russia is going to invade, it would happen after the Feb. 20 end to the Winter Olympics. If there is an invasion, it would likely be price-supportive for wheat on concern over disruptions to Black Sea shipments. If Russia doesn’t invade, more back-and-forth price action is likely.
Cotton: May cotton futures rose 164 points to 121.16 cents per pound, up 175 points for the week. The cotton outlook will remain closely focused upon the pace of export sales and shipments. The numbers posted the past two weeks have proved disappointing, especially since the shipment figures have fallen back from the strong weekly totals posted in mid-to-late January. Feb. 22 marks first notice day for the March cotton contract. The size of notices and deliveries against the contract could affect trader attitudes.
Cattle: April live cattle fell 90 cents to $145.875, down 30 cents for the week and the lowest closing price since Feb. 1. March feeder cattle fell 77.5 cents to $165.425, down 80 cents for the week. Cattle futures ended the week on a soft note on corrective pressure in the wake of contract highs posted last week. Futures declined despite continued strength in cash markets, with live steers up about $1.90 this week to an average of $142.25. While April is still about $4.00 over cash, the late-week slide seemingly implies diminished expectations for next week’s cash action.
Hogs: April lean hogs rose $1.825 to $109.40, up $7.175 for the week and the highest closing price for a nearby contract since mid-August. Strong cash fundamentals fueled bullish sentiment, though there’s potential for corrective selling after the three-day weekend if followthrough buying doesn’t emerge. The CME lean hog index this week reached the highest levels since September and the next reading is expected to rise another 98 cents to $95.23. Wholesale pork tumbled to end the week but remain up sharply from January lows. Pork cutout values fell $6.63 today to an average of $109.91, down 5 cents from the end of last week. Movement was light at about 206 loads.
