Corn: December corn futures fell 4 ¼ cents today to close at $5.68 3/4 and near mid-range. The market saw a normal downside correction to start the trading week, following last week’s solid gains that pushed prices to a five-week high. Don’t be surprised to see some speculator buyer interest surface on “Turnaround Tuesday,” as the near-term technical posture for corn futures market favors the bulls. The big event for the grain markets this week is the annual Pro Farmer Midwest Crop tour that got under way today and concludes Friday with estimates of the size of the U.S. corn and soybean crops. Look for our late-daily reports and tweets for briefs on what crop scouts are seeing in the field. Today’s weekly USDA export inspections report showed 754,929 MT inspected versus 744,934 MT in last week’s report. This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress report is expected to show the U.S. corn crop in 64% good to excellent condition compared to 64% last week and 69% last year at this time.
Soybeans: November soybean futures closed the day up 3 1/4 cents at $13,68 1/4. December soybean meal gained $2.10 at $362.50 and December bean oil was down 34 points at 62.94 cents. Gains in soybeans today were spurred in part on the eighth consecutive business day USDA reported a daily sale of U.S. soybeans--132,000 metric tons an unknown destination. It’s generally believed the unknown sales are from China. Today’s weekly USDA export sales inspections report showed 277,637 MT inspected compared to 114,718 MT reported last week. Monday’s NOPA crush report of 155.1 million bushels in July represented another example of the substantial slowdown in the crush pace off of the monthly records set during the first five months of the crop year (Sept-Jan). NOPA reported a record July crush of 172.8 million bushels in 2020. The daily NOPA crush averaged 5.003 million per day and that is the slowest pace since June 2019. The soybean meal yield in July at 47.70 pounds increased 0.24 pound from 47.46 pounds per bushel in June. Tropical Storm Fred is expected to make landfall in western Florida soon. World Weather Inc. says the storm could produce some beneficial rains over the Corn Belt later this week, and will also help to produce very high winds in the western Corn Belt the next couple days. This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress report is forecast to show the U.S. soybean crop in 60% good to excellent condition, compared to 60% last week and 72% in good to excellent condition last year.
Wheat: December SRW wheat futures prices closed the day up 3/4 cent at $7.75 on a routine pause after good gains last week that saw prices hit a contract high. December HRW futures closed down 5 3/4 cents at $7.49 1/4 on some mild profit taking after hitting a contract high last week. Spring wheat futures slipped 2 1/2 cents to $9.27. Look for some better buying interest in the winter wheat futures markets on Tuesday as HRW and SRW futures remain fully bullish on the charts, and following last week’s bullish USDA data that showed less global wheat supplies. Buying interest in wheat futures could be somewhat limited this week as Tropical Storm Fred is expected to make landfall in western Florida soon. World Weather Inc. said today the storm could produce some beneficial rains as far north as the U.S. Plains states and Canadian Prairies in the coming days. Today’s USDA export inspections for U.S. wheat totaled 440,567 MT, which was down from 653,969 MT reported last week. This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress report is expected to show U.S. spring wheat harvested at 56% complete versus 38% last week and 30% a year ago at this time.
Cotton: Cotton futures ended the day mixed after having begun the session mostly lower. Most-active December futures slipped 1 points to 94.31 cents per pound at the close. Cotton traders probably weren’t ready to push the market higher after having sent it to three-year highs last week, especially with sector leader crude oil posting $1.00-plus losses in early trade. But bullish demand strength and the surprisingly small USDA harvest forecast for autumn 2021 seemed to reemerge as market drivers late in the day. The late-afternoon release of the weekly USDA Crop Progress report is unlikely to greatly affect the market unless it holds a major divergence from the fine conditions indicated in recent weeks.
Hogs: Nearby October lean hog futures jumped $2.475 to $89.00 per hundredweight Monday, with deferred futures posting more modest gains. The preliminary quote for the CME Lean Hog Index dipped 23 points to $109.67, which was no surprise. Also, noon pork cutout fell $3.56 to $120.99, due largely to sizeable losses in pork loins and hams. Given the huge jump in wholesale ham prices last Friday, the ham decline wasn’t terribly surprising either. Ultimately, the sheer size of the discounts built into the October and December contracts seemed to power sizeable gains on the first day after the August contract expired.
Cattle: Expiring August cattle futures gained $0.775 to $123.525, while October climbed $1.00 to $129.125 Monday. Wholesale beef prices continued their midsummer surge today, with the noon quote for Choice cutout marking a $2.59 rise to $327.42 per hundredweight. That news likely gave the market an added boost after Friday’s late 5-area direct market report indicated the weekly average had risen about 50 cents from Thursday’s figure to $122.84. Ideas that the cattle market will participate more fully in the wholesale strength experienced during spring and summer remain active, as indicated by the most-active October contract’s push above the $129.00 level. Traders in deferred futures seemingly harbored doubts on this score, since those contracts slipped from elevated levels.