Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor

Posted on 04/18/2019 1:19 PM
advice

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  • April 18: No changes. 

  • April 17: No changes. 

  • April 16: Standing sell order lowered for wheat. Standing order for second-quarter hedges added for live cattle. Details below. 

  • April 15: No changes. 

  • April 12: Standing order to sell more 2019-crop cotton hit. Details below. 

*Note: Check below daily to see if we recommend catch-up sales for individual markets. 

 
Corn
Cash-only marketers

2018 crop: 25% sold

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2018 crop: 25% sold

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions

 

You should have standing orders to sell 10% of 2018-crop in the cash market if May corn futures hit $3.73 and another 15% if the contract hits $3.80. You should also have an order to sell 10% of expected 2019-crop via hedge-to-arrive contracts for harvest delivery if December corn futures hit $4.00. You should cancel the previous old- and new-crop sales orders.


Soybeans
Cash-only marketers

2018 crop: 40% sold
2019 crop: 20% sold via HTAs for harvest delivery

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2018 crop: 40% sold
2019 crop: 30% sold via HTAs for harvest delivery

Hedgers - futures/options

 

35% hedge in July soybean futures at $8.96.

You should have standing orders to sell 10% of 2018-crop if May soybean futures hit $9.30 and to sell another 20% if futures hit $9.49. You should cancel the previous old-crop sales orders. You should also have standing orders to sell 10% of expected 2019-crop via hedge-to-arrive contracts for harvest delivery if November futures hit $9.75 and to sell another 10% via HTAs for harvest delivery if futures hit $10.00.  


Wheat
Cash-only marketers

2018 crop: 65% sold
2019 crop: 15% sold

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2018 crop: 65% sold
2019 crop: 15% sold 

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions

You should have a standing order to sell 15% of 2018-crop in the cash market if May SRW futures hit $4.73. Make sure all previous sales orders are canceled. 


Cotton
Cash-only marketers

2018 crop: 70% sold

2019 crop: 35% sold

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2018 crop: 70% sold

2019 crop: 35% sold

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions

We are targeting the 80.00-cent or higher level to advance old-crop sales. 

Livestock
Cattle

1st qtr. 2019

0%

2nd qtr. 2019

0%

3rd qtr. 2019

0%

4th qtr. 2019

0%
You should have a standing order at $123.45 in June live cattle futures to hedge 25% of second quarter production. 
Hogs

1st qtr. 2019

0%

2nd qtr. 2019

0%

3rd qtr. 2019

0%

4th qtr. 2019

0%

Continue to carry all risk in the cash market until futures signal the upside is exhausted. 


Feed
Corn

2nd qtr. 2019

Coverage in cash through May.

3rd qtr. 2019

0%

4th qtr. 2019

0%

1st qtr. 2020

0%
You should have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through the end of May. We are targeting a drop to the $3.60 level in July futures for extending corn-for-feed coverage. 
Meal

2nd qtr. 2019

Coverage in cash through May.

3rd qtr. 2019

0% 

4th qtr. 2019

0%

1st qtr. 2020

0%

You should have all soybean meal needs covered in the cash market through the end of May. We are targeting a drop to the $305 level in July soymeal futures for extending our coverage.

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