Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor

Posted on 11/19/2020 1:20 PM

advice

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  • Nov. 19: No changes.
  • Nov. 18: Exit 2020-crop hedges held in December corn and December SRW wheat futures and make offsetting cash sales. Cancel the standing sales order in December cotton and enter a new order in March cotton futures. Details below. 
  • Nov. 17: Order hit for initial 2021-crop sales. Details below. 
  • Nov. 16: No changes.
  • Nov. 13: No changes.

*Note: Check below daily to see if we recommend catch-up sales for individual markets.

Corn

Cash-only marketers

2020 crop: 60% sold

2021 crop: 10% forward sold for harvest delivery next year

Hedgers — cash sales

2020 crop: 80% sold

2021 crop: 10% forward sold for harvest delivery next year

Hedgers — futures/options

No positions

Get current with advised 2020- and 2021-crop sales.

Soybeans

Cash-only marketers

2020 crop: 80% sold

Hedgers — cash sales

2020 crop: 80% sold

Hedgers — futures/options

No positions

Get current with advised sales. The inverted price structure in the market argues to have soybeans sold this fall instead of storing them.

Wheat

Cash-only marketers

2020 crop: 75% sold 

2021 crop: 30% forward contracted for harvest delivery

Hedgers — cash sales

2020 crop: 95% sold

2021 crop: 30% forward contracted for harvest delivery

Hedgers — futures/options

No positions

Get current with advised sales.  

Cotton

Cash-only marketers

2020 crop: 60% sold

2021 crop: 20% forward sold for harvest delivery next year

Hedgers — cash sales

2020 crop: 60% sold

2021 crop: 20% forward sold for harvest delivery next year

Hedgers — futures/options

No position

You should have a standing order to sell another 10% of 2020-crop cotton in the cash market if March futures hit 72.90 cents. Get current with advised 2020- and 2021-crop sales. 

Livestock

Cattle

4th qtr. 2020

0%

1st qtr. 2021

0%

2nd qtr. 2021

0%

3rd qtr. 2021

0%

Carry all risk in the cash market for now. Downside risk should be limited from current levels.  

Hogs

4th qtr. 2020

25%

1st qtr. 2021

25%

2nd qtr. 2021

0%

3rd qtr. 2021

0%

You should have hedges covering 25% of fourth-quarter production in December lean hog futures at $61.625 and 25% of first-quarter production in February lean hog futures at $67.65. 

Feed

Corn

4th qtr. 2020

33%

1st qtr. 2021

0%

2nd qtr. 2021

0%

3rd qtr. 2021

0%

You should have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through November.  

Meal

4th qtr. 2020

0%

1st qtr. 2021

0%

2nd qtr. 2021

0%

3rd qtr. 2021

0%

You are hand-to-mouth on soybean meal needs. Wait on an extended price correction to get more coverage. 

 

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