Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor

Posted on 11/19/2019 1:15 PM
advice

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  • Nov. 19: No changes. 

  • Nov. 18: No changes. 

  • Nov. 15: No changes. 

  • Nov. 14: No changes. 

  • Nov. 13: Increase 2019-crop corn sales. Exit fourth-quarter feed hedges in long December corn futures. Details below.

*Note: Check below daily to see if we recommend catch-up sales for individual markets. 

 
Corn
Cash-only marketers

2019 crop: 50% sold via hedge-to-arrive contracts for harvest delivery

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2019 crop: 50% sold via hedge-to-arrive contracts for harvest delivery

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions

 

Get current with advised sales to take advantage of strong basis and to limit downside risk on half of the crop. We intend to wait on a price recovery to increase 2019-crop sales and to start 2020-crop sales. 


Soybeans
Cash-only marketers

2019 crop: 40% sold via HTAs for harvest delivery

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2019 crop: 50% sold via HTAs for harvest delivery

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions

We will wait on the next push to the upside before increasing 2019-crop sales. Be prepared to make initial 2020-crop sales on the next price rally. 


Wheat
Cash-only marketers

2019 crop: 60% sold

2020 crop: 10% forward-sold via HTAs for harvest delivery

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2019 crop: 60% sold 

2020 crop: 10% forward-sold via HTAs for harvest delivery

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions 

Wait on the next leg higher to increase old- and new-crop sales.  


Cotton
Cash-only marketers

2019 crop: 55% sold

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2019 crop: 55% sold

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions

You should have a standing order to sell another 10% of 2019-crop in the cash market if December futures hit 66.45 cents.  

Livestock
Cattle

4th qtr. 2019

0%

1st qtr. 2020

0%

2nd qtr. 2020

0%

3rd qtr. 2020

0%
Carry all risk in the cash market until futures signal the rally has run out of steam. 
Hogs

4th qtr. 2019

0%

1st qtr. 2020

0%

2nd qtr. 2020

0%

3rd qtr. 2020

0%

Continue to carry all risk in the cash market. But be prepared for short-term defensive hedges given futures premium to cash if futures can't push above the spring/summer downtrend. 


Feed
Corn

4th qtr. 2019

0%

1st qtr. 2020

0%

2nd qtr. 2020

0%

3rd qtr. 2020

0%
You should be hand-to-mouth on feed needs until prices show signs of bottoming.  
Meal

4th qtr. 2019

Coverage in the cash market through December.

1st qtr. 2020

0%

2nd qtr. 2020

0%

3rd qtr. 2020

0%

You should have all soybean meal needs covered in the cash market through the end of December. 

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