Corn is chopping around unchanged in midmorning trade.
● Corn futures have turned from earlier lows, with support from followthrough strength in crude oil futures.
● Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentine 2025 production estimates unchanged at 137 MMT and 56 MMT, respectively. He holds a neutral bias toward both crops going forward.
● The driest areas in southern Argentina will benefit from regular rounds of showers through the next two weeks, and while heavy rains aren’t expected, it should be enough to prevent significant declines in crop and soil conditions, according to World Weather Inc.
● March corn futures have notched a fresh near-term low, with support now serving at $4.11 1/2, while resistance is around $4.30.
Soybeans are 3 to 4 cents lower, while soymeal is over $5.50 lower. Soyoil is around 100 points higher.
● Soybeans are extending Monday’s losses amid technical woes and pressure from soymeal, though soyoil strength is limiting the downside.
● USDA reported daily sales of 168,000 MT of soybeans to China and 152,404 MT to Mexico during 2025-26.
● President Trump’s announcement on Monday of new tariffs on goods from countries trading with Iran risks derailing his one-year trade truce with China, the world’s top buyer of Iranian oil. “Any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America,” Trump posted on social media Monday and as reported by Bloomberg.
● Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentine 2025 production estimates unchanged at 178 MMT and 49 MMT, respectively. He holds a neutral to higher bias toward the Brazilian crop and neutral bias toward the Argentine crop.
● The launch of Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel mandate will depend on the price gap between crude oil and palm oil, according to a senior official. The world’s largest producer of palm oil has previously stated it would start its B50 mandate in the second half of 2026.
● March soybeans continue to face resistance at the 10-, 20- and 200-day moving averages, layered from $10.57 1/2 to $10.67 1/4.
SRW wheat futures are around a penny higher, while HRW futures are 2 to 3 cents lower. HRSfutures are mostly unchanged to a penny higher.
● SRW wheat futures are modestly firmer in corrective trade following Monday’s selling.
● Australian and Argentina exported around 620,000 MT of wheat to China in December, according to shipping data, with analysts expecting shipments to continue as Chinese buyers take advantage of low global prices. December shipments to China from Australia were the largest since April 2024 and the most from Argentina since 1997, according to Reuters.
● Russia’s IKAR consultancy raised the country’s grain export potential for the 2025-26 season to 60.2 MMT, up from 57.8 MMT, but warned the target may not be met due to a poor crop in the south.
● March SRW futures are facing resistance at the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $$5.12 1/4 and $5.13 1/4, while support lies at the Jan. 2 low of $5.01 1/2.
Live cattle are feeders are notching notable gains at midmorning.
● Cattle futures are notably firmer amid confirmation of firmer cash trade last week and wholesale strength.
● Cash cattle trade averaged $231.86, marking an 18-cent gain from the previous week.
● Choice boxed beef rose $1.48 on Monday to $357.11, while Select rose $5.88 to $358.05, further narrowing the Choice/Select spread. Movement totaled 103 loads.
● February futures continue to trade between the 10-day moving average of $234.55 and last week’s high of $237.45.
Hog futures are modestly weaker at midsession.
● Nearby lean hog futures are weaker amid modest technical selling amid persistent weakness in the cash index.
● The CME lean hog index is down 25 cents to $80.60.
● The pork cutout value rose 78 cents to $93.10, with gains in all cuts except primal butts. Movement totaled 364.1 loads.
● February lean hogs continue to be limited by support at the 200-day moving average of $84.06, while resistance is layered at the 20- and 10-day moving averages, trading at $84.85 and $85.15.