Market Snapshot | January 27, 2025

Market Snapshot

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot | January 27, 2025
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are 6 to 8 cents lower at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are extending last Friday’s corrective pullback to begin the week.
  • USDA reported daily corn sales of 139,000 MT to Mexico for 2024-25.
  • AgRural reported safrinha corn plantings in Brazil stood at 2.2% as of last Thursday, well behind last year’s pace of 11.4% for the same period.
  • USDA reported corn export inspections of 1.25 MMT (49.1 million bu.) for the week ended Jan. 23, down 295,325 MT from the previous week. Inspections were near the low-end of the pre-report range of expectations from 1.0 MMT to 1.4 MMT.
  • March corn futures are facing resistance at the 10-day moving average at $4.81 1/4, which is backed by $4.83 1/2, while support lies at $4.77 1/2, then at the 20-day moving average of $4.69 1/4.

Soybeans are mostly 9 to 12 cents lower, while soymeal futures are around $4.00 lower. Soyoil is around 40 points lower.

  • Soybean futures are weaker, with rains in Argentina and the cut to Argentina’s export taxes limiting buyer interest.
  • AgRural lowered its Brazilian soybean production forecast by 500,000 MT to 171 MMT due to cuts in Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul. The firm increased its soybean production forecast for Mato Grosso, despite the threat of crop quality concerns if rains persist into February. As of last Thursday, AgRural estimated Brazil’s soybean harvest at 3.9%, behind 10.8% on this date last year and the slowest since 2020-21.
  • All of Argentina is advertised to get much-needed rain over the next two weeks, though amounts in the south and east-central this week will be a little too light and sporadic for some areas. Central Brazil will remain wet over the next two weeks, limiting soybean harvest progress and safrinha corn planting, both of which are already delayed.
  • USDA reported soybean export inspections of 729,362 MT (26.8 million bu.) for the week ended Jan. 23, down 249,928 MT and short of the pre-report expectations of 800,000 MT to 1.25 MMT.
  • March soybeans are finding support at $10.38 3/4, while resistance stands at $10.55 1/4.

Wheat futures are 7 to 12 cents lower.

  • SRW wheat futures are lower as technical headwinds continue to crimp buyer interest.
  • Assessing U.S. winter crops for possible damage will wait until spring, but for now producers and traders can only speculate on damage that may or may not have occurred this past week.
  • World Weather Inc. notes there are no changes in the drier bias for the Black Sea region in the next 10 days and temps will remain quite warm this week before trending a little colder next week.
  • USDA reported wheat export inspections of 484,544 MT (17.8 million bu.) for the week ended Jan. 23, up 222.758 MT from the previous week and above pre-report expectations from 250,000 to 450,000 MT.
  • March SRW futures have extended to a two-week low, with support lying at $5.28 1/2, while resistance stands at the 20-day moving average of $5.43 1/4.

Live cattle and feeders are posting moderate to strong gains at midsession.

  • Nearby live cattle have backed off the new all-time high carved in earlier trade but are still sharply higher.
  • Official data from USDA later this morning is expected to confirm the cash cattle market strengthened for a tenth consecutive week and posted a record high for a fourth straight time. While packers are seemingly better positioned on near-term slaughter needs, feedlots remain current and have negotiating power.
  • Wholesale beef values fell on Friday, with Choice sliding $30.4 to $327.92, while Select dipped 92 cents to $316.29. Movement totaled 129 loads.
  • USDA estimated there were 11.823 million head of cattle in large feedlots (1,000-plus head) as of Jan. 1, down 107,000 head (0.9%) from year-ago and 71,000 head less than analysts expected. The drop in feedlot supplies was driven by a 3.3% decline in the number of cattle placed in December, with that category coming in below the bottom end of pre-report expectations. Marketings increased 1.0% during December, modestly less than expected.
  • Beef stocks in USDA’s Cold Storage Report totaled 457.3 million lbs. at the end of December, up 16.6 million lbs. from November, which was slightly less than the five-year average increase of 18.3 million pounds. Frozen beef inventories declined 23.0 million lbs. (4.8%) from year-ago and stood 53.2 million lbs. (10.4%) below the five-year average.
  • April live cattle have extended to a fresh contract high of $205.55, which now serves as initial resistance and is backed by $207.32. Initial support lies at $202.31.

Hog futures are higher at midmorning.

  • Lean hog futures are posting gains, with support from firming cash fundamentals.
  • The CME lean hog index inched up a penny to $81.29 as of Jan. 23, extending the rebound off the seasonal low for a tenth straight day.
  • The pork cutout value slipped 8 cents on Friday to $91.69. Movement totaled 307.1 loads.
  • Pork stocks in USDA’s Cold Storage Report stood at 400.4 million lbs., up 9.3 million lbs. from November, more than the five-year average increase of 2.5 million lbs. for the month. Frozen beef inventories declined 27.0 million lbs. (6.3%) from last year and were 54.9 million lbs. (13.7%) below the five-year average.
  • April lean hogs have pushed above the 10- and 40-day moving averages, trading around $88.89 and $88.93, with resistance now standing at $90.55. Initial support lies at $87.15.