GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Wheat: 2 to 4 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn led strength overnight as soybeans and wheat followed modestly to the upside. Bulls are near technical resistance in each market, marking today as important price action wise. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher while the U.S. dollar index is around 200 points higher.
Pro Farmer crop scouts last week found a big U.S. corn crop but one that’s projected to average 182.7 bushels per acre – 6.1 bu. below USDA’s latest 188.8-bushel projection. The 2025 growing season has seen disease crop up in many of the corn and soybean fields Pro Farmer scouts evaluated last week. Pro Farmer put the U.S. soybean yield average at 53.0 bu. per acre, with a total crop size of 4.246 billion bushels. By comparison, USDA projects soybeans to average a record-high 53.6 bu. per acre, with a total crop of 4.29 billion bushels.
The National Weather Service reports that east of the Rockies and north of the Gulf Coast, large swaths of below average temperatures are expected this week, with temperatures more reminiscent of early fall than late summer. Cool to cold conditions are expected overnight from the Gulf Coast northward, with sunshine during the day over portions of the Midwest, Appalachians, and much of the East. Record lows will be threatened on Tuesday at International Falls, Minnesota (close to freezing) and well as portions of the Midwest, where 40s and 50s are forecast. On Wednesday, the record low territory expands across the Midwest, towards the southern Great Lakes and into the Southeast, encompassing a broader area of 40s and 50s. Heavy rainfall north of a front will develop at times over parts of Colorado, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas through Wednesday, with a slight risk of excessive rainfall over portions of these areas. Little rainfall is expected over much of the Corn Belt through at least mid-week.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced Friday it acted on 175 Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) petitions covering compliance years 2016–2024, seeking to clear a longstanding backlog and align policy with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). After consultation with the Department of Energy, EPA granted full exemptions to 63 petitions, partial exemptions to 77, denied 28, and found seven ineligible. The agency granted 50% relief in cases of partial hardship, moving away from earlier interpretations that would have denied aid altogether. EPA also confirmed that compliance credits (RINs) returned through these exemptions will not affect current or future renewable fuel blending obligations, since credits from 2022 and earlier are no longer valid for 2024 compliance. EPA said it will soon submit a supplemental proposed rule to the Office of Management and Budget on reallocating exempted volumes for 2023 and later years, while leaving earlier years untouched. The proposal will also outline how EPA plans to account for future exemptions when setting renewable fuel standards for 2026 and 2027. EPA emphasized that its actions are meant to balance relief for small refiners with Congress’ intent to expand the use of U.S. biofuels, strengthen energy security, and support rural economies.
CORN: December corn led strength overnight. Gains stalled near the 40-day moving average at $4.14 1/4, which will remain a key level. Additional resistance stands at $4.20. Support comes in at $4.08 3/4 on profit-taking.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans saw modest followthrough strength overnight. Resistance persists at Friday’s high of $10.62 3/4 then $10.68 1/4. Support comes in at the psychological $10.50 mark on profit-taking.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat saw modest strength overnight. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at $5.34 1/2, the 20-day moving average, on persistent strength. Support comes in at $5.25 on a turn lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of recent strength. Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report showed placements continued to decline in July as feeder cattle imports from Mexico remain blocked. USDA Friday afternoon reported cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.9 million head on August 1. That’s 2 percent below August 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.60 million head, 6 percent below 2024. Wholesale beef continues to charge higher as Choice rose a nickel Friday, while Select inched six cents higher to $383.66.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of Friday’s strength. Bulls are building technical momentum but are fighting waning cash fundamentals. The CME lean hog index is down another 48 cents to $107.84 as of Aug. 21. Pork cutout ended Friday 36 cents higher to $112.96, led by a $11.29 surge in picnics, though ribs and bellies saw strong gains as well.