Market Snapshot | Firmer tones in grain market to start the week

Corn is 1 to 2 cents higher at midmorning.

● Corn futures are continuing to post small gains this morning and see support from a slightly weaker dollar and spillover strength from wheat.
● USDA reported export sales of 1.48 MMT for the week ending December 4^th, coming in at the lower end of analyst expectations of 1.2 MMT to 2.4 MMT.
● The agency also released export inspections for the week ending December 18^th showing 1.744 MMT of corn shipped, up slightly from last week’s 1.582 MMT, and in line with analyst expectations of 1 MMT to 2.2 MMT.
● March corn futures are up against resistance around the $4.47 mark as it attempts to inch closer to the $4.50 level. The 100-day moving average of $4.41 3/4 offers initial support, with firmer support at last week’s low close of $4.36 1/2.

Soybeans are 2 to 3 cents higher, while soymeal is around 50 cents higher. Soyoil is around 35 points higher.

● Soybeans are seeing corrective gains this morning after a sell-off that briefly induced technically oversold conditions last week.
● USDA reported export sales of 1.552 MMT for the week ending December 4^th, falling in the middle of analyst expectations that ranged from 800,000 MT to 2 MMT.
● Separately, USDA reported a flash sale of 396,000 MT of soybeans to China today, with 330,000 MT for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year and the remaining 66,000 MT for delivery in 2026/27.
● Export inspections for the week ending December 18^th show 870,199 MT of soybeans shipped, up from 795,661 MT last week, and mid-range of analyst expectations from 800,000 to 1,000,000 MT.
● AgRural raised its forecast for Brazilian soybean production to 180.4 MMT, up from the previous 178.5 MMT forecast in November.
● March soybeans are teetering just above $10.60 with underlying support at the psychological $10.50 level. Resistance is being encountered around $10.66 with the next test of resistance at the 10-day moving average of $10.78 3/4.

SRW wheat futures are mostly a nickel higher, with HRW also 5 to 6 cents higher. HRS futures are 1 to 2 cents higher.

● Both SRW and HRW are posting modest gains mid-session, likely pushed higher by news that Russian attacks damaged Ukrainian infrastructure at the port of Odesa.
● USDA reported export sales of 381,500 MT for the week ending December 4^th, on the lower end of analyst expectations that ranged from 300,000 MT to 600,000 MT.
● USDA also reported export inspections for the week ending December 18^th, showing 627,443 MT of wheat shipped, up from 488,025 MT the week prior, and firmly above analyst estimates of 200,000 to 400,000 MT.
● SovEcon estimates Russia’s wheat exports in the month of December at 3.9 million tons, down from 4.8 million tons last month, but up half a million tons compared to last December.
● March SRW futures are up against resistance at the 10-day moving average of $5.18 1/4. The 20-day moving average serves as stiffer resistance at $5.25 Initial support lies at last week’s low of $5.04, then at the psychological $5.00 level.

Live cattle futures are posting minor gains, with feeders pushing higher as well.

● Cattle futures are continuing to see strength from a price-friendly Cattle on Feed report that was released Friday after trading closed.
● The Cattle on Feed Report showed inventory down 2% from a year ago at 11.72 million head. Marketings were the second lowest since the report began in 1996 at 1.52 million head. Placements were a record low for the survey coming in at 1.6 million head.
● Choice boxed beef gained $4.35 to $361.63 according to the Friday afternoon report, which also showed Select rising $2.05 to $346.02. Movement was up slightly from the previous day at 98 loads.
● February live cattle futures are encountering resistance in the area of $231.71, while support lies at the 40-day moving average of $226.67.

Hog futures are slightly higher at midsession.

● Lean hog futures are slightly higher off of spillover strength in cattle markets and strong holiday demand for pork.
● The CME lean hog index is down 15 cents to $83.73 as of Dec. 18.
● The pork cutout value gained $2.33 on Friday to$99.76. Increases were mostly driven by a $6.63 uptick in ham values, but also saw support from strong gains in bellies.
● February lean hogs are facing resistance at $85.325, and find support at the 10-day moving average of $83.77, as well as the 20-day moving average of $82.93.