Advice Alert: December corn futures rallied to the highest level since early July and have provided the best selling opportunity since harvest. Risk is elevated with USDA updating production forecasts this morning, which could spur volatility. We advise corn hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell 5% of 2025-crop production to get to 25% priced. Prices continue to trend higher on the daily bar chart and we will let the market continue to work.
Corn is ½ to 1 ½ cents higher
- The focus is squarely on the November crop production and supply and demand estimates from USDA are due at 11 a.m. CT.
- A Reuters poll found analysts, on average, expect USDA on Friday to estimate a yield of 184.0 bu. per acre for corn. Corn yield estimates ranged from 181.7 to 186.0 bu. per acre. USDA in September pegged the national average corn yield at 186.7 bushels an acre.
- December corn ran into resistance at $4.42 ¾. Bulls are seeking to hold prices above support at $4.37 on a reversal lower.
Soybeans are flat to 1 cent higher
- The Reuters survey found analysts look for an average soybean yield of 53.1 bushels an acre, down from the September estimate of 53.5 bushels an acre. Yield estimates ranged from 51.7 to 54.0 bushels an acre.
- Traders will also be focused on USDA’s export outlook for soybeans given anxiety over China’s purchase plans. Separately, USDA is due to also release daily export sales data that was delayed due to the government shutdown, covering activity from Oct. 1 to Nov. 13. That will also be closely watched for clues to China’s activity.
- Resistance for November soybeans persists at $11.50 on a push higher, followed by $11.60. Support stands at $11.37, then the 10-day moving average at $11.27 1/2.
SRW wheat futures are flat to 1 cent higher, HRW wheat is up 1 to 3 cents
- Wheat futures were supported overnight after a major drone attack on Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, a key export hub for grains and oil, according to Bloomberg.
- Bulls are eyeing resistance at $5.50 for December SRW while support comes in at $5.35 on a reversal lower.
Live cattle and feeders are trading higher
- Cattle found their footing after seeing follow-through selling in the wake of Thursday’s ugly close.
- The White House on Thursday said the U.S. and Argentina “have committed to improved, reciprocal, bilateral market access conditions for trade in beef.” The Trump administration is looking to provide relief to U.S. consumers on the heels of elections in which Republicans suffered losses with an electorate increasingly focused on affordability.
- Cash cattle trade picked up midweek and has averaged $225.58 thus far, down from last week’s average of $228.70, which could weigh on prices, though futures continue to trade at discounts to cash. Wholesale beef fell under pressure again on Thursday.
Hog futures are firmer
- The CME lean hog index is down another 30 cents to $88.83 as of Nov. 12. Pork cutout slid another 88 cents to $95.26 Thursday, led by losses in butts.
- Bulls are looking for support from seasonal buying patterns to kick in as the holidays approach.