Corn is mostly 6 to 7 cents lower at midmorning.
- Corn futures are correctively weaker after notching consistent gains since mid-April, though resistance at the March high is stirring some pause among traders.
- USDA estimated 38% of the corn crop was planted as of May 3, up 13 percentage points from the previous week and four points ahead of the five-year average. Emergence was estimated at 13%.
- The Bloomberg Spot Commodity Index extended its rally last week, notching the 38th instance over the past year, in which it registered a new 252-day high, a feat that has only occurred 11 other times in history, according to Dean Christians, founder of Turning Point Market Research. Click here to read more about the important milestone regarding the ag complex.
- World Weather Inc. notes frosts and freezes will occur in a large part of the northern and central and southwestern Corn Belt Wednesday into Friday. Some crops have emerged since the last round of freezes and some may be damaged by the cold, though these instances will likely be rare as much of the damaging cold should be confined to areas where few crops have emerged, notes the forecaster.
- Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his 2025-26 Brazilian and Argentine corn production estimates unchanged at 134 MMT and 62 MMT, respectively. He notes May is expected to be a dry month in Brazil, which could still impact corn yields in central and south-central Brazil - one or two more rains during May would be very beneficial for the crop.
- July corn futures are being limited by resistance at the March 9 high of $4.87 ½, while support lies at the Monday’s low of $4.77 ¼, which is backed by the 10-, 40- and 20-day moving averages.
Soybeans are mostly 7 to 10 cents lower. Soymeal is around 50 cents lower, while soyoil is fractionally higher.
- Soybeans are correctively weaker in inside trade in the wake of Monday’s break out of the prolonged sideways pattern in July futures.
- USDA estimated 33% of the soybean crop was planted as of May 3, up 10 percentage points from the previous week and 5-year average. Emergence was estimated at 13%.
- Dr. Michael Cordonnier notes 2026 U.S. soybean acreage could end up 1-2 million acres more than the 84.70 million acres estimated in the Prospective Plantings Report. He estimates the national average soybean yield at 52 bushels per acre.
- Cordonnier also noted a 1 MMT increase in Brazil’s 2025-26 soybean production to 180 MMT, and holds a neutral bias going forward. He left his Argentina soybean production estimate unchanged at 49 MMT. As of last week, 18.3% of the Argentine crop was estimated to be harvested, compared to 22% last year and 29% on average.
- July soybeans are weaker in inside trade, with resistance standing at Monday’s high of $12.26 1/4, while support lies at $12.07 3/4, $12.00, then at the 10-. 40- and 20-day moving averages.
Wheat futures are mostly 13 to 14 cents higher.
- SRW wheat futures are facing pressure amid extended profit-taking from last week’s high.
- The winter wheat crop improved slightly, with USDA rating the crop 31% good to excellent as of May 4, up one point from last week, but 20 points behind last year at this time. The portion of the crop rated poor to very poor increased two percentage points to 37%. Click here to read about potential abandonment amid subpar conditions.
- Egypt, a key wheat importer, has intentions to achieve self-sufficiency in wheat for its heavily subsidized bread in 2028, according to Agriculture Minister Alaa Farouk.
- July SRW futures are testing support at the 10-day moving average, though additional support lies at the 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered at $6.15 and $6.12 3/4. Resistance stems from last week’s high of $6.71 1/2.
Live cattle are higher while feeders are posting heavier gains at midsession.
- Cattle futures are rebounding after Monday’s corrective selloff, with technical support and supply fundamentals limiting earnest selling.
- Cash cattle trade averaged $255.02 last week, up $8.84 from the previous week.
- Boxed beef values firmed on Monday, with Choice up $2.45 to $391.56 while Select rose $3.55 to $390.60. Movement totaled 104 loads.
- June cattle futures continue to be limited by last week’s high of $256.625, while support lies at the 10- and 20-day moving averages, layered at $250.07 and $248.93.
Hog futures are slightly firmer at midmorning.
- June lean hogs are weaker for the fourth straight session and have carved a fresh for-the-move low amid weak cash and wholesale fundamentals.
- The CME lean hog index is down 27 cents to $91.03 as of May 1.
- The pork cutout value fell 23 cents to $97.36 on Monday. Movement totaled 296.9 loads.
- June lean hogs have marked a fresh near-term low of $99.60, which will now serve as initial support, though additional support lies at $99.97. Initial resistance stands at $100.46, which is backed by the 10-, 20- and 200-day moving averages.