Corn is mostly a nickel to 6 cents higher at midmorning.
- Corn futures are notably firmer, in tandem with wheat, as tensions rise in the Black Sea.
- Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his 2025-26 Brazilian corn production estimate by 2.0 MMT to 138.0 MMT and holds a neutral to lower bias going forward due to potential delays in planting the safrinha corn crop. He kept his Argentine production estimate at 54.0 MMT.
- Growing demand for ethanol in Brazil should ensure that the expansion of corn as a feedstock for biofuel does not jeopardize cane-based producers, according to the president of agribusiness consultancy Datagro. Corn-based ethanol production in Brazil has more than tripled since the turn of the decade while cane-based ethanol output has flattened.
- March futures have edged above the 200-day moving average, with resistance now stemming from the Nov. 14 high of $4.57. Support lies at the 20-, 10- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $4.44 3/4 and $4.41 1/4.
Soybeans are mostly a penny higher, while soymeal is around $1.30 lower. Soyoil is around 30 points higher.
- Soybeans are being led higher by the grain complex, though meal weakness is crimping buyer interest.
- Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his 2025-26 Brazilian soybean production estimated by 1.0 MMT to 176.0 MMT, noting a neutral to lower bias amid delayed plantings, irregular rainfall and intense heat in various parts of the country, but especially central Brazil. Cordonnier kept his Argentine estimate unchanged at 49.0 MMT.
- Argentina’s soybean sowing campaign is progressing far slower than usual, with only 11% of the crop planted as of Nov. 26, compared to 36% at the same time a year ago and the five year average of 44%. The delay has prompted analysts to reassess expectations for the country’s crop structure this season, according to Oil World.
- January soybeans continue to pivot around the 20-day moving average, which now coincides with the 10-day moving average, though resistance stands at $11.37 3/4, which is backed by the Nov. 18 high of $11.69 1/2. Initial support lies at $11.22 1/2.
Wheat futures are mostly 4 to 7 cents higher.
- SRW wheat futures are facing notable corrective buying from Monday’s low, propelled by Black Sea tensions.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Europe earlier today that it would face swift defeat if it went to war with Russia, dismissing proposals on Ukraine ahead of a Kremlin meeting with two of President Trump’s most powerful envoys, according to Reuters.
- Ukraine has almost completed sowing the 2026 winter wheat crop, and the crop is in good condition overall, according to the major farmer’s union UAC earlier today.
- Ajay Goyal, Chairman of the Wheat Products Promotion Society, said India is heading into one of its biggest wheat surpluses ever, making a review of the export ban almost unavoidable next year. He stated that with government stocks likely to cross 50 MMT by June 1, the policy direction must change simply because “the market doesn’t need the government wheat this year.”
- March SRW wheat futures have edged above the 40- and 10-day moving averages, with resistance now serving at the 100- and 20-day moving averages, layered at $5.45 1/2 and $5.47 1/4. Initial support lies at $5.31, which is backed by Monday’s low of $5.30.
Live cattle and feeders are notably higher at midsession.
- Cattle futures are posting strong gains as cold weather across the Plains spurs buyers as supply fundamentals continue to underpin prices.
- Cash cattle trade averaged $211.53 last week, down $5.88 from the previous week.
- World Weather Inc. reported the past few days that “livestock stress was quite significant across the northern half of the Great Plains and throughout the Midwest as cold rain and heavy snow was accompanied by falling temperatures.
- The number of confirmed cases of African swine fever in wild boars near Barcelona rose to nine, according to Spain’s Agriculture Ministry.
- Wholesale beef rose on Monday, with Choice up $2.07 to $368.89, while Select rose $6.83 to $357.88. Movement was light at 93 loads.
- February live cattle have edged above the 200- and 20-day moving averages, with resistance now serving at $221.19 and $223.18. Initial support lies at $216.57.
Hog futures are mixed at midmorning.
- Lean hogs are trading within Monday’s lower range as buyers remain hesitant as cash fundamentals remain weak.
- The number of confirmed cases of African swine fever in wild boars near Barcelona rose to nine, according to Spain’s Agriculture Ministry.
- The CME lean hog index is down another 25 cents to $81.67 as of Nov. 25.
- The pork cutout value rose 57 cents to $94.79 on Monday. Movement was light at 230.4 loads.
- February lean hogs continue to find support at the 20-day moving average of $80.09, while resistance continues to stem from the 40-day moving average of $82.46.