Good morning!
Grain futures lower overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was down 5 cents. May soybeans were 31 3/4 cents lower. May soybean meal was down $7.70 and May bean oil was 109 points lower. May SRW wheat was down 8 1/4 cents and May HRW wheat was 3 3/4 cents lower. The grain markets were hit overnight, and especially the soy complex, on the weekend news that President Trump said he is considering delaying his upcoming summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping because Beijing hasn’t yet responded to Trump’s request that China help secure the Strait of Hormuz. (See items below.) The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index down, with Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $97.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.265 percent.
Latest on the war in Iran…
--Trump says Iran wants to end war; Tehran says no proposal
--Trump calls for countries to send warships to reopen Strait of Hormuz
--EU considers naval mission shift to protect Strait of Hormuz
--Iran strikes Dubai airport
--UAE’s Fujairah oil port hit again as oil loadings at key the port suspended
--Iran tests NATO’s boundaries with missiles fired at Turkey
--U.S. Energy chief signals Iran war may last several more weeks
--Oil market set for tumultuous week as Kharg attack raises stakes
--World’s central banks confront fresh inflation threat as war jolts crude oil
--U.S. calls for Americans to leave Iraq “now” as attacks mount
--Israel says Iran is firing cluster warheads aimed at civilians
--India talks with Iran to prioritize strait passage for six LPG tankers
Trump threatens delaying summit with XI, if China doesn’t help secure Strait of Hormuz… President Trump threatened to delay his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping if Beijing doesn’t help secure the Strait of Hormuz, as the U.S.-Israel war stifles oil supplies and unsettles ties between the world’s biggest economies. Trump stressed China’s dependence on oil from the Middle East in an interview with the Financial Times and as reported by Bloomberg, as he reiterated a demand for Beijing to help unblock the key waterway. Trump has appealed to China to join a team effort to send ships to the strait through which a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. “It’s only appropriate that people who are the beneficiaries of the strait will help to make sure that nothing bad happens there,” Trump said Sunday in the FT interview. His trip to Beijing, slated for the end of this month, would be too late, Trump added, underscoring the growing urgency around efforts to counter Iran’s chokehold on the strait. “While China hasn’t made any direct response to the request, the state-run Global Times dismissed the idea as Trump’s attempt to spread the risk ‘of a war that Washington started and can’t finish.’ The commentary published by the nationalist tabloid on Sunday night explained why Beijing wouldn’t sign up to the proposal,” said Bloomberg. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian sidestepped the issue of sending ships to the strait on Monday at a regular briefing in Beijing, while reiterating both sides were in communication about the summit. “Head of state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable role in providing strategic guidance to China-US relations,” he added, without specifying a timeframe for the leaders’ meeting. Trump’s comments come as Chinese and U.S. trade chiefs are convening in Paris ahead of the summit, with talks set to resume today.
U.S. starts to release emergency oil reserves… The Trump administration has started the process of a mammoth drawdown of the U.S. emergency oil reserve, issuing a request to exchange 86 million barrels of crude oil, Bloomberg reported. Deliveries from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, part of a massive 172 million-barrel release announced last week, are expected to begin moving to market by the end of this week, the Energy Department said in a statement Friday. The release, which is expected to take four months to complete, is part of a 400 million-barrel effort coordinated with other nations aimed at lowering crude, gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices that have climbed dramatically since the U.S.-Israel invasion of Iran.
China open to buying more U.S. ag products: report… Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials held “remarkably stable” talks in Paris on Sunday that touched on potential areas of agreement in agriculture, critical minerals and managed trade for President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to consider in Beijing, according to a Reuters report. Sources told Reuters that the “candid and constructive” Paris talks led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng would set in motion possible “deliverables” for Trump’s trip to China to meet with Xi at the end of March. But they added that the leaders would have the final say on the proposals. “The Chinese side showed openness to potential additional purchases of U.S. agricultural goods including poultry, beef and non-soybean row crops, one of the sources said, adding that China was still committed to buy 25 million metric tons of American soybeans for each of the next three years,” said the report. “The two sides discussed the establishment of new formal mechanisms to help manage trade and investment between the world’s two largest economies that may be considered by Trump and Xi in Beijing, the sources said” and as reported by Reuters.
Blizzard conditions in upper Midwest… The National Weather Service today said an intense cyclone with its center tracking across the Great Lakes has already brought as much as 2 feet of new snow across northeastern Wisconsin to portions of upper Michigan. Blizzard warnings are in effect for most of Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and parts of northern Illinois. Very strong and gusty north to northwesterly winds wrapping around the cyclone will likely prolong the blizzard conditions in these areas through today before the cyclone center moves into Canada by tonight. Meanwhile, a swath of light snow ahead of a warm front will move east across the northern Plains on Tuesday before reaching the Midwest and possibly into the upper Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. A potent cold front will sweep from west to east through the eastern U.S starting today. The combination of the vigorous dynamics ahead of the potent front and maximum daytime heating will be ripe for eruption of severe weather, especially across interior Mid-Atlantic late Monday afternoon into early evening. Meantime, freeze warnings are in effect for the ArkLaTex region and portions of the Southeast.
JBS meatpacking plant labor strike set to begin today in Greeley, Colorado… Workers at the JBS-owned meatpacking plant in Greeley plan to begin a labor strike today. Members of United Food and Commercial Workers Local 7, the union representing 3,800 workers at the plant, voted last month to authorize a so-called unfair labor practices strike. The union has been in talks with JBS on a new collective bargaining contract since a previous four-year agreement expired last July. “The goal of negotiations is never to go on strike, but when the company violates workers’ rights and ignores workers’ concerns about safety and health, the company give(s) workers no choice but to stand together in solidarity and show the company that they cannot be silenced,” UFCW Local 7 President Kim Cordova said in a statement. JBS was one of several companies that recently settled a class action lawsuit alleging meatpacking plants conspired to lower employee wages. JBS paid $55 million of the settlement, which totals more than $200 million.
China tapping its fertilizer reserves early… China has decided to release commercial fertilizer stockpiles for the spring planting season early this year, as war in the Middle East disrupts global trade flows and pushes up prices of key crop nutrients, Bloomberg reported. “Beijing has asked firms that store nitrogen, phosphate and compound fertilizers to sell the crop inputs to local agriculture producers, according to a statement from the China Agricultural Means of Production Association published late on Friday. The statement did not provide further details. China manages part of its fertilizer reserves through companies, releasing stockpiles to meet peak farming demand and for emergency use after natural disasters. Every year, these commercial supplies are typically released close to the spring planting season, which should start in the coming weeks,” said the report. While China is a top producer of fertilizers and has taken measures to restrict exports and shore up supplies, domestic prices of some inputs, like urea, have jumped sharply as uncertainty persists over the duration of the Iran war.
China’s economic growth improves… China’s economy rebounded in early 2026 with a surprising uptick in domestic consumption and investment, but this acceleration may be hard to sustain due to the war in Iran. Industrial output climbed 6.3% in January-February from a year earlier, while retail sales rose 2.8% and fixed-asset investment expanded 1.8%, with infrastructure investment surging 11.4%. The improvement in the economy may delay the rollout of stimulus as policymakers assess the situation in the Middle East, with economists saying the likelihoods of a later reduction in policy interest rate and banks’ required reserves are rising.
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Malaysian palm oil futures prices rally… Malaysian palm oil futures surged over 1.5% to above MYR 4,650 per MT on Monday, marking gains for a fourth straight session amid firmer edible oils on the Dalian market. Strong export demand added support, with cargo surveyor Intertek noting shipments of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1–15 jumped 43.5% mom, driven by Ramadan and Eid buying. In India, imports rose 11% in February to a six-month high as wider discounts to rival oils encouraged refiners to boost purchases. Upbeat activity data in key buyer China further lifted sentiment. Attention also turned to Indonesia, the world’s largest producer, where authorities may impose additional taxes on commodities, including palm oil, to ease budget pressure from rising global oil prices. The move could raise export costs and potentially tighten global supply. Gains were capped, however, by a stronger ringgit and lingering uncertainty after reports that a planned U.S. President Trump–Xi meeting later this month could be delayed.
Cattle futures bulls work to stabilize prices… April live cattle futures on Friday fell $0.35 to $230.90 for the week were down $3.675. March feeder cattle futures gained $1.25 to $349.475 and for the week lost $6.15. The live cattle and feeder cattle futures markets late last week mostly paused as the bulls try to stabilize the markets after recent strong selling pressure. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace the past couple weeks, amid the war in the Middle East, has sapped cattle bulls’ confidence. Workers at the JBS-owned meatpacking plant in Greeley, Colorado plan to begin a labor strike today. This could be a big and potentially bearish element for the cattle markets in the near term. More active cash cattle was reported by USDA at midday Friday, with the agency saying steer prices averaged $234.77 and heifer prices averaged $235.02. USDA reported average cash cattle trading the week prior at $239.94.
Lean hog futures bears have some momentum… April lean hog futures on Friday fell 90 cents to $93.45, hit a three-week low and for the week were down $2.175. The hog futures market’s technically bearish weekly low close Friday sets the stage for follow-through selling pressure from the chart-based speculators early this week. Risk aversion in the general marketplace again last week kept the hog futures bulls squeamish, amid the ongoing Middle East war. The latest CME lean hog index is up 24 cents to $91.44. Today’s projected cash index price is up another 16 cents to $91.60. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Friday was $68.97. A resilient cash hog market may limit the downside in futures in the coming weeks.