Market Snapshot | August 22, 2024

Market Snapshot

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Pro Farmer’s Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Note: Today, scouts will sample fields in eastern Iowa and southern Minnesota. The Tour will conclude tonight in Rochester, Minnesota. Find Crop Tour updates on our website and by searching #pftour24 on X (formerly Twitter).

Corn futures are mostly a penny to 3 cents lower at midmorning.

· Corn futures are extending lower amid general weakness across the grain and soy complex as the U.S. dollar posts corrective gains.

· USDA reported daily sales of 110,490 MT of corn to Mexico and 132,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2024-25.

· Scouts on day 3 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found an average corn yield of 204.14 bu. per acre in Illinois up from 193.72 bu. last year and the three-year average of 193.58 bu. per acre. In western Iowa, average corn yields for Districts 1, 4 and 7 were 176.59 bu., 195.86 bu. and 191.59 bu. per acre, respectively, compared to 182.58 bu., 168.71 bu. and 184.84 bu. per acre, respectively, in 2023.

· USDA reported weekly sales of 119,100 MT for 2023-24 and 1.3 MMT for 2024-25 for the week ended Aug. 15. Old-crop net sales were a marketing-year low and within the pre-report range of 100,000 to 300,000 MT. New crop sales exceeded expectations ranging from 500,000 MT to 1.025 MMT. Exports during the week totaled 1.16 MMT, up 12% from the previous week.

· December corn futures have found support at $3.94 1/2, backed by $3.92 1/4 and last week’s low of $3.90.

Soybeans are mostly 17 cents lower, while soymeal futures are around $5.00 lower. Soyoil is around 20 to 30 points lower.

· Soybeans are being pressured by selling in meal futures despite additional export demand.

· USDA reported daily sales of 198,000 MT of soybeans to China and 105,000 MT of soybean cake and meal to Vietnam during 2024-25.

· Scouts found soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square averaged 1,419.11 for Illinois, up from 1,270.1 last year and the three-year average of 1,266.70. Western Iowa pod counts for Districts 1, 4 and 7 averaged 1,108.76, 1,254.09 and 1,366.22, respectively, compared with 1,137.24, 1,120.30 and 1,170.28 in 2023. The three-year averages for Iowa Districts 1, 4 and 7 are 1,105.44, 1,201.49 and 1,253.91, respectively.

· USDA reported net reductions of 43,700 MT for 2023-24 and sales of 1.7 MMT for 2024-25 during the week ended Aug. 15. Net old-crop sales were short of pre-report expectations of 100,000 to 400,000 MT, while new-crop sales were notably above the expected range of 800,000 MT to 1.35 MMT. Exports during the week totaled 421,800 MT.

· November soybeans are facing support at $9.64 1/2, which is backed by the recent low of $9.55, while initial resistance continues to serve at $9.86 1/4.

Wheat futures are mostly 7 to 10 cents lower.

· Wheat futures are extending Thursday’s losses to a fresh low, breaking out of the recent consolidation range.

· USDA reported weekly sales of 492,700 MT for the week ended Aug. 15, up 45% from the previous week and 63% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the upper end of pre-report expectations ranging from 250,000 to 500,000 MT. Exports totaled 470,200 MT.

· Canada’s two major railroads, Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City, locked out over 9,000 employees on Thursday after failing to reach new labor agreements with the Teamsters union. This work stoppage threatens to disrupt hundreds of millions of dollars in daily cross-border trade and significantly impact North American supply chains.

· December SRW wheat futures have extended to a fresh contract low, with support serving at $5.21 while initial resistance stands at $5.50.

Live cattle are marking strong gains while feeders are sharply higher at midmorning.

· Cattle futures are being led higher by increasing strength in feeders.

· Sharply lower futures have seemingly motivated feedlots to accept lower packer bids, as cash trade picked up midweek around $2.80 below last week’s average.

· Wholesale beef prices rose modestly on Wednesday, with 13 cent gain in Choice to $315.21 and 4 cent gain in Select to $301.08. Movement totaled 123 loads.

· USDA reported net beef sales of 15,900 MT for 2024, down 44% from the previous week and 8% from the four-week average.

· October live cattle are trading within Wednesday’s range, with initial support lying at Wednesday’s low of $173.725, while initial resistance stands at $175.68.

Hog futures are posting moderate gains in nearby contracts, while deferreds are modestly firmer.

· October hog futures are strengthening despite notable wholesale weakness and waning cash fundamentals.

· The CME lean hog index is down another 50 cents to $89.21 as of Aug.20, marking the lowest quote since July 16, but still 83 cents above the mid-July low.

· The pork cutout value slipped $2.99 on Wednesday to $94.55 led by a $9.88 drop in primal bellies. Movement totaled 313.0 loads for the day.

· USDA reported net pork sales of 19,300 Mt for 2024, a marketing year low, down 7% from the previous week and 34% from the four-week average.

· October lean hogs gapped lower at the open but have rebounded back above the 20-day moving average of $75.61, with resistance around $76.67 limiting momentum. Initial support lies the 10-day moving average of $75.45.