GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: Steady to 3 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 1 to 3 cents higher; HRS steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans were able to hold firm amid selling pressure in the grains yesterday. Selling pressure was mostly concentrated in wheat, which fell after markets had time to digest the news of further increasing global supplies from Tuesday’s WASDE. Overnight trade saw corn and wheat recover some of yesterday’s losses.
USDA today reported flash sales of 264,000 MT of soybeans to China, and another 226,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year. Sales totaling 186,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations was also reported.
The agency also reported export sales for the week ending November 13th this morning as they work to clear their backlog. The report showed corn sales of 2.38 MMT, soybean sales of 695,600 MT, and 850,400 MT of wheat. All values were up from the prior week, with corn and wheat performing particularly well.
The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee on Wednesday afternoon delivered a 0.25% interest rate cut, which was fully expected by the marketplace and was the third quarter-point rate cut in a row at the FOMC meetings. The FOMC voted 9-3 to lower the benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.5%-3.75%. The FOMC statement suggested greater uncertainty about when the Fed might cut rates again. The Fed surprised markets by saying it will begin buying $40 billion of Treasury bills per month starting Friday, in a move to further ease short-term funding costs by rebuilding reserves in the financial system. Money markets have been flashing signals in recent months that pressures were building up in the $12.6 trillion market while the Fed was shrinking its balance sheet. U.S. stock indexes rallied, U.S. Treasury yields dipped, the U.S. dollar index sold off, and gold and silver prices rallied following the FOMC meeting’s conclusion and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference Wednesday afternoon. In the days leading up to this week’s FOMC meeting, most of the marketplace came to reckon that despite the expected rate cut, the Fed and Powell would deliver a somewhat more hawkish tone on U.S. monetary policy. However, the marketplace saw the Fed’s dovish move to buy U.S. Treasury bills as usurping any other Fed rhetoric that might have been deemed hawkish.
The International Energy Agency has lowered its estimates for a global oil supply surplus this year and next as demand strengthens and output growth slows. World supplies will exceed demand by 3.815 million barrels a day in 2026, which trims last month’s IEA estimate by 231,000 barrels a day. The revision reflects several factors, including OPEC+'s decision to pause supply increases, slightly reduced production estimates for the cartel’s rivals, and a stronger outlook for world oil consumption.
CORN: March corn continues to trade in a mostly sideways range over the last two weeks. Resistance just below the $4.50 mark has proven firm over that time. Support exists at the 40-day moving average of $4.43.
SOYBEANS: January soybeans saw gains yesterday but continue to deal with a bearish technical outlook and will need to continue momentum to break out of the downtrend. Support is seen at $10.79 1/2, backed by firmer support at $10.68 3/4. The $11.00 mark will continue to serve as key psychological resistance.
WHEAT: March Winter and Spring wheat futures saw gains in the overnight after falling yesterday. Support stems from yesterday’s low of $5.29 1/2. Bulls pushed above the $5.30 mark in the overnight, and will look to test the 40-day average of $5.38 1/2 as the next key resistance.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Cattle futures have gained momentum lately and look to continue the daily price uptrend that has been put in place over the last two weeks. Yesterday’s afternoon report showed Choice down $2.00 from the prior day at $359.04 and Select down $1.60 to $346.43. Consumer demand has remained strong for beef despite high prices, and slightly declining wholesale values should help bolster that. Cash cattle negotiations look to pick up today and tomorrow after starting the week slow.
HOGS: Lean hog futures expect a slightly higher open due to recent strength and a potential lift from the cattle complex. February hogs recent strength has pushed values above the 10 and 20-day moving averages, and looks to test the longer term 200-day moving average next. The CME lean hog index is up five cents to $81.89 as of Dec. 8, adding another signal that seasonal weakening is past. Wednesday afternoon’s report showed pork cutout up 83 cents to $97.27.