Note: Today, scouts on the eastern leg of the Crop Tour will sample routes from Noblesville, Indiana to Bloomington, Illinois, and scouts on the western leg will sample central and southern Nebraska. Find Crop Tour updates on our website and by searching #pftour24 on X (formerly Twitter).
Corn futures are mostly a penny to 2 cents lower at midmorning.
· Corn futures are favoring the downside in narrow trade, though increasing gains in wheat are paring selling efforts.
· Scouts on the first day of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found an average corn yield of 156.51 bu. per acre in South Dakota, down from 157.42 bu. last year but up from the three-year average of 142.44 bu. per acre. In Ohio, samples yielded an average corn yield of 183.29 bu. per acre, down from 183.94 bu. in 2023 and up from the three-year average of 181.06 bu. per acre.
· USDA rated 67% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent: and 11% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop dropped 1.1 points to 372.5. Click here for details.
· Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn forecast unchanged at 183.5 bu. per acre and total production at 15.17 billion bu. He noted weather continues to prove favorable for grain fill, though the next few weeks are likely to see soil moisture decline. He noted a neutral bias toward the crop going forward.
· U.S. Midwest and central Plains weather will trend wetter next week as frontal system breaks down the high-pressure ridge aloft over central North America and pulls moisture northeast from the southwestern monsoon, notes World Weather Inc. The precip will be very important for many summer crops that experience hotter/drier weather in the coming five- to ten days.
· Ukraine was China’s top corn supplier in July for the second straight month at 675,619 MT, bringing total Ukrainian corn imports to 4.29 MMT or 35% of China’s total corn imports during January to July. Corn imports from the U.S. totaled 408,549 MT in July, up 88.2% from June but 53% lower than year-ago.
· December corn futures are hovering above the 10-day moving average of $3.97 3/4, though the 20-day moving average, currently trading at $4.02 3/4 continues to curb momentum.
Soybeans are mostly unchanged to a penny lower, while soymeal futures are $2.00 lower. Soyoil is fractionally higher.
· Soybeans are slightly weaker as technical resistance continues to moderate short-covering efforts.
· USDA reported daily sales of 132,000 MT of soybeans to China and 239,492 MT to Mexico during 2024-25, bringing this week’s sales total to 813,492 MT, with 464,000 MT to China.
· Soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square came in at 1,025.89 for South Dakota, up from 1,013 last year and from the three-year average of 960.42. In Ohio, pod counts in a 3’x3’ square totaled 1,229.92 for Ohio, down from 1,252.93 in 2023 but above the three-year average of 1,193.31.
· USDA rated the soybean crop as 68% “good” to “excellent” and 8% “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, soybeans slid 0.4 point to 367.4.
· Dr. Cordonnier left his bean yield estimate at 53.5 bu. per acre with production of 4.61 billion bushels. He indicated a neutral bias going forward.
· China’s soybean imports from Brazil reached 9.12 MMT in July, according to figures from the country’s customs agency (GASC). This brings year-to-date imports of Brazilian soybeans to 43.56 MMT, 12% more compared to year-ago and the highest ever for the period thus far. Meanwhile, year-to-date imports from the U.S. have reached 12.63 MMT, down 25% from 2023.
· November soybeans are facing resistance at the 10-day moving average of $9.82 1/4, while initial support lies at $9.70.
Wheat futures are mostly 3 to 6 cents higher.
· Wheat futures are firmer in consolidative trade, with support stemming from extended U.S. dollar weakness.
· USDA rated 73% of the spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent” and 5% “poor” to “very poor.” On the CCI, spring wheat crop declined 1.7 points to 380.2.
· Russia maintains its 2024 grain harvest forecast of 132 MMT, as well as its grain export forecast of 60 MMT, according to Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut. Last year’s grain exports totaled a record 72 MMT, stated Lut.
· December SRW wheat continues to find initial support at $5.46 1/2, which is backed by support at $5.41. Meanwhile, initial resistance is now serving at $5.60.
Live cattle and feeders marking heavy losses at midmorning.
· Cattle futures are marking heavy losses amid technical selling from fading cash and wholesale fundamentals.
· The average cash cattle price last week was down $2.20 from the previous week to $189.14.
· Wholesale beef prices edged lower on Monday, with Choice falling $1.90 to $315.55 and Select down 58 cents to $302.01, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $13.54. Movement totaled 135 loads for the day.
· October live cattle have marked the lowest intraday level since May 1, with support serving at the session low of $175.80, while initial resistance stands at Monday’s close of $179.025.
Hog futures are moderately weaker at midsession.
· October hog futures are moderately lower amid continued pressure on the cash index coupled with persisting wholesale weakness.
· The CME lean hog index is down another 14 cents to $89.95 as of Aug. 16.
· The pork cutout value slid another $1.58 on Monday to $97.09, led by an $8-drop in primal bellies. Movement totaled 320.3 loads for the day.
· October lean hogs are hovering above the 20-day moving average, currently trading at $75.77, which is serving up initial support. Initial resistance stands at Monday’s close of $76.80 and is backed by resistance at $77.80.