Hogs
Price action: April lean hog futures fell $1.70 to $92.05, near the daily low and hit a four-week low.
Fundamental analysis: Lean hog futures saw technical selling pressure resurface today amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. Price pressure in the cattle futures markets today also spilled over into the lean hog futures market.
The latest CME lean hog index is up 7 cents at $91.93. Friday’s projected cash index price is up another 11 cents at $92.04. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote today is $69.10. The noon report today showed pork cutout value down 5 cents at $98.77, led by losses in butts. Movement at midday was 158.29 loads.
USDA reported weekly U.S. pork export sales for 2026 totaled 28,300 MT during the week ended March 12. Net sales were up 19% from the previous week but down 13% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: April lean hog futures bulls have faded recently. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close April futures prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $97.30. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $91.125. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $94.20 and then at $95.00. First support is seen at $91.125 and then at $90.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You have 50% of Q2 production hedged with all remaining risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through March in the cash market. You should also have corn-for-feed needs purchased through March. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Cattle
Price action: April live cattle fell $2.125 to $233.275, nearer the daily low. March feeder cattle lost $3.45 to $355.275, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets today saw modest downside price corrections following recent gains. Some profit taking from the shorter-term futures traders was featured, too. Risk appetite in the general marketplace is not that great at present, which is somewhat squelching the cattle market bulls.
No cash cattle trading has been reported by USDA as of midday today. The agency on Monday reported lower cash cattle trading last week, with the average price of $234.83—down $5.11 from the week prior. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values down again. Choice-grade was down $1.33 at $400.42, while Select-grade lost $2.49 to $393.68. Movement at midday was 47 loads. The Choice-Select spread at midday today was plus $6.74.
USDA this morning reported U.S. beef export sales for 2026 totaled 3,200 MT, a marketing-year low during the week ended March 12. Net sales were down 87% from the previous week and 80% from the four-week average.
In the Plains states, high temperatures will reach the lower 100s in some places in the southwest Friday and Saturday. The heat will notably stress livestock, especially after the rapid change from early-week unusually cold weather.
Technical analysis: Cattle futures markets bulls have shown resilience recently. Price downtrends on the daily bar charts are in some jeopardy. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close April futures above resistance at $239.95. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $227.325. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $235.70 and then at $237.00. First support is seen at $232.00 and then at this week’s low of $230.825.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close March futures prices above technical resistance at $364.825. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $340.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $360.125 and then at $364.825. First support is seen at $355.00 and then at this week’s low of $350.625.
What to do: Cover corn-for-feed needs through March in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through March. You have corn-for-feed needs covered through March as well. Be prepared to make additional purchases if value prices continue.