Hogs
Price action: October lean hogs fell $1.05 to $90.925, nearer the daily low. August lean hog futures fell 10 cents to $108.775 and expire next Thursday.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market today saw profit-taking pressure following recent gains that pushed October futures to a three-week high Wednesday.
Losses in futures were limited by a jump in wholesale pork prices at midday. The noon report showed pork cutout value up $4.06 to $119.28, led by gains in picnics, hams and bellies. Movement at midday was 126.89 loads. The latest CME lean hog index quote is $109.60. Friday’s projected price quote (for Aug. 6) is up 50 cents at $110.10.
USDA reported U.S. pork export sales of 31,000 MT for 2025, down 22% from the previous week but up 27% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Lean hog futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A choppy price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close October futures prices above solid chart resistance at $94.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $86.025. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $92.125 and then at this week’s high of $93.275. First support is seen at $90.00 and then at $89.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market, with half coverage for October, November and December. For corn, you now have all needs through October covered in the cash market.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle rose $2.45 to $238.75, nearer the session high and hit another contract and record high. August feeder cattle rose $3.625 to $348.65, near the daily high and also hit another contract/record high.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets showed late-session price surges and continue to rack up contract/record highs amid rising boxed beef prices and still-elevated cash cattle prices. Live cattle futures traders this week have narrowed futures’ discounts to the cash cattle market.
Light cash cattle trading so far this week sees steers fetching an average price of $240.25 and heifers averaging $237.00, according to USDA. Last week’s average cash cattle price was a record high $243.17. Wholesale boxed beef cutout values surged again today at midday, with Choice-grade up another $3.41 to $378.27, while Select gained $2.18 to $353.54. Movement at midday was light at 45 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $24.73.
USDA this morning reported U.S. beef export sales of 15,900 MT for 2025, up 88% from the previous week and up 40% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The RSI shows August live cattle moving into overbought territory, meaning a downside correction is due soon. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close August futures above resistance at $245.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $227.50. First resistance is seen at today’s contract/record high of $239.475 and then at $241.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $235.475 and then at Wednesday’s low of $233.175.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at $355.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $335.00. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $348.90 and then at $350.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $343.425 and then at $340.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market, with half coverage for October, November and December. For corn, you now have all needs through October covered in the cash market.