Hogs
Price action: October lean hogs fell $1.65 to $89.125, nearer the daily low and hit a two-week low. August lean hog futures expired today and went off the board at $109.65.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market was hit by more profit-taking pressure today, along with weak long liquidation from the speculators. Cash hog and pork market fundamentals have deteriorated a bit this week. Today’s sell offs in the cattle futures markets also likely weighed on hog futures.
The latest CME lean hog index is down 6 cents to $109.78 as of Aug. 12. Friday’s projected hog index price is up 5 cents at $109.83.
The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote today is $109.67. The noon report today showed pork cutout value down 34 cents to $116.16, led by losses in picnics and ribs. Movement at midday was 143.04 loads.
USDA this morning reported U.S. pork export sales of 21,200 MT for 2025, down 32% from the previous week and 19% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Lean hog futures bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading and need to show fresh power very soon to keep alive a choppy price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close October futures prices above solid chart resistance at the August high of $93.275. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $87.925. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $90.775 and then at Wednesday’s high of $91.90. First support is seen at $87.00 and then at $86.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market, with half coverage for October, November and December. For corn, you now have all needs through October covered in the cash market.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle fell $2.20 to $233.35, nearer the daily low. August feeder cattle fell $5.475 to $340.40, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures markets have seen their near-term technical postures deteriorate a bit recently. That’s prompting some profit taking, weak long liquidation and even a bit of bold speculator short-selling. However, overall cash and beef market fundamentals remain solid and the live cattle futures still have significant discounts to the cash market.
More active cash cattle trading occurred today, with USDA reporting steers fetching an average price of $243.46 and heifers averaging $241.80. Last week’s cash cattle average price was $242.01. The noon report today showed higher boxed beef cutout values, with Choice grade up $2.78 at $393.27 and Select grade up67 cents at $368.63. Movement at midday was 67 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $24.64.
USDA this morning reported U.S. beef export sales of 4,300 MT for 2025, a marketing-year low and down 73% from the previous week and 66% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close August futures above resistance at the contract high of $239.475. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $230.00. First resistance is seen at $234.00 and then at today’s high of $236.525. First support is seen at this week’s low of $231.00 and then at $230.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at the contract high of $349.125. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $330.00. First resistance is seen at $341.00 and then at $343.00. First support is seen at $337.00 and then at this week’s low of $335.75.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.