Hogs
Price action: April lean hog futures fell 42 1/2 cents to $97.95, near the session low and for the week up $2.80.
5-day outlook: The lean hog futures market late this week paused and saw some mild profit taking after April futures hit a contract high on Wednesday. Still-bullish technicals and the recent rallies in the cash hog and CME lean hog index prices will likely keep hog futures prices elevated in the near term. Hog futures’ premium to the CME lean hog index also is a positive element for the futures market.
The latest CME lean hog index is up 32 cents to $83.38. Monday’s projected cash index price is up another 19 cents to $86.57. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $62.81. The noon report today showed pork cutout value down 76 cents at $94.51, led by losses in butts. Movement at midday was 138.49 loads.
30-day outlook: Improving wholesale pork market fundamentals have supported price gains in futures as grocers ramp up pork purchases to compensate for tighter beef supplies, exacerbated by recent weather and reduced slaughter. A strong technical posture is likely to stand between a downside correction in the near-term, though we would continue to raise caution around heading into spring without hedge protection.
90-day outlook: USDA Thursday reported U.S. pork export sales of 35,100 MT for 2026 were down 37 percent from the previous week and down 48 percent from the prior 4-year average. Exports of 37,600 MT were up 5 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. Those numbers need to improve in the coming weeks for the cash hog, futures are fresh pork markets to remain elevated. This week saw no pork purchases from China, as reports say that nation is dealing with a glut of pork supplies.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You have 50% of Q2 production hedged with all remaining risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through March in the cash market. You should also have corn-for-feed needs purchased through March. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Cattle
Price action: April live cattle futures rose $1.65 to $237.25, nearer the session low. For the week, April live cattle rose 45 cents. March feeder cattle futures gained $3.35 to $367.425, near the daily low. For the week, January feeders were up $7.15.
5-day outlook: The live and feeder cattle futures markets came out of the chute strong early today but faded down the stretch. The near-term technical posture for the cattle futures markets has weakened a bit late this week, which has kept some of the chart-based bulls on the sidelines..
Cash cattle trading activity picked up Thursday afternoon and today, with USDA today reporting steers averaging $239.91 and heifers averaging $239.85. USDA Monday reported average cash cattle trading last week at $239.44. The noon report today showed boxed beef cutout values higher, with Choice-grade up $2.66 to $369.91, while Select-grade rose $3.48 to $363.85. Movement at midday was light at 38 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $6.06.
30-day outlook: While cash cattle and beef market fundamentals remain solid, the U.S. stock market has wobbled and other commodity markets have become unstable—namely gold, silver and copper. While some instability in outside markets generally does not significantly impact the cattle futures markets, the enormity of recent daily price moves in gold and silver spooked most commodity markets traders. For the cattle futures bulls to make runs at the record highs scored last fall, it’s likely the U.S. stock indexes will need to at least hold near their present levels, while the metals markets will need to squash the recent extreme daily price volatility.
90-day outlook: USDA’s semi-annual cattle inventory report confirmed the U.S. herd declined for the ninth straight year. USDA also verified stepped-up heifer retention in the Jan. 30 report, lending evidence toward early herd-rebuilding efforts. But that process is likely to take time, and strong demand for hamburger, combined with reduced slaughter, is likely to continue to underpin cash and futures prices.
What to do: Cover corn-for-feed needs through March in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through March. You have corn-for-feed needs covered through March as well. Be prepared to make additional purchases if value prices continue.