Hogs
Price action: October lean hog futures prices rose 75 cents to $95.025, nearer the daily high and hit a two-month high. For the week, October hogs rose $3.825.
5-day outlook: Today’s technically bullish weekly and monthly high closes in October hogs set the table for follow-through, chart-based buying in the hog futures early next week. Markets are closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday.
Cash hog prices continue to decline but pork cutout today at noon showed solid gains. The latest CME lean hog index is down another 20 cents to $106.43 as of Aug. 27. The noon report showed pork cutout value rose a solid $5.19 to $116.68, led by gains in bellies. Movement at midday was decent at 184.22 loads.
30-day outlook: Surging cattle markets to record highs have been bullish for hogs markets, too as traders look for a value buy and consumers may be doing more substitution-demand buying of pork. However, a fading cash hog index is worrisome to hog traders and producers, especially as outdoor grilling demand subsides as Labor Day marks the unofficial end to summer. Still, short beef supplies may push retailers to continue to feature more pork cuts in the meat case.
90-day outlook: USDA Thursday reported U.S. pork export sales of 42,400 MT for 2025, up noticeably from the previous week and 53% from the four-week average. U.S. pork sales abroad will need to continue to improve in the coming months to keep the cash hog and lean hog futures markets elevated. Hog traders will continue to monitor U.S.-China trade relations and any progress on a new trade deal.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market, with half coverage for October, November and December. For corn, you now have all needs through October covered in the cash market.
Cattle
Price action: October live cattle futures rose $2.725 to $239.65, near the daily high, at a new contract high close and for the week up $1.775. September feeder cattle futures gained $2.975 to $364.775, near the daily high and for the week up $2.10.
5-day outlook: The cattle futures markets bounced back from profit-taking pressure seen Thursday, after prices Wednesday hit contract/record highs. Trading Tuesday will be extra important. Markets are closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday. The U.S. stock market sold off today, just ahead of what can be a rocky two months (September-October) for equities. If the stock market continues under pressure next week, the cattle futures markets will be hard-pressed to muster more price strength at such already elevated price levels.
Cash cattle trading became active late this week, with USDA at midday reporting steers fetching an average price of $243.44 and heifers averaging $243.55. The noon report today showed boxed beef cutout values mixed, with Choice grade down $1.22 to $413.19, while Select rose $3.55 to $389.39. Movement at midday was solid at 84 loads.
30-day outlook: Beef packer margins have rebounded recently, which has resulted in higher cattle slaughter levels, which may test the resilience of boxed beef prices and retailer attitudes regarding restocking for the post-Labor Day holiday period, when grilling season winds down more aggressively.
90-day outlook: The Federal Reserve and markets are indicating U.S. interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in September and possibly another one before the end of the year. Lower interest rates and a U.S. economy that is still generally overall sound, may keep consumer attitudes upbeat heading into the holidays, and that augurs for better demand for beef at the meat counter.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.