Hogs
Price action: October lean hogs rose 20 cents to $91.40, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market today paused after solid gains posted Friday. Lower cattle futures prices today did limit buying interest in hog futures.
The noon report today showed pork cutout value rose $2.64 to $115.53, led by gains in picnics and hams. Movement at midday was 167.13 loads. The latest CME lean hog index is down another 48 cents to $107.84 as of Aug. 21. Tuesday’s projected CME cash index quote is down 57 cents to $107.27. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote today is $109.28.
Technical analysis: Lean hog futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A choppy price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close October futures prices above solid chart resistance at the August high of $93.275. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $87.925. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $92.025 and then at $93.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $90.925 and then at $90.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market, with half coverage for October, November and December. For corn, you now have all needs through October covered in the cash market.
Cattle
Price action: October live cattle fell $1.05 to $236.825, nearer the daily high. September feeder cattle fell 77 1/2 cents to $361.90, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Buying interest in the cattle futures markets today was squelched by the news that a U.S. citizen from Maryland has contracted the New World Screw worm disease. Profit taking from the speculators was also featured today, following last week’s contract/record highs that were hit.
Selling interest today was curbed by a price-friendly monthly cattle-on-feed report. USDA Friday afternoon reported cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in U.S. feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.9 million head on August 1. That’s 2 percent below August 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.60 million head, 6 percent below 2024.
USDA at midday today reported the average cash cattle trading price last week was $244.25, which was up $2.24 from the week prior’s average price fetched. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef values continued to firm, with Choice-grade up 62 cents to $408.53, while Select rose $1.89 to $385.55. Movement at midday was light at 32 loads.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close October futures above resistance at $240.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $225.00. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $238.125 and then at $239.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $233.525 and then at $232.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close September futures prices above technical resistance at $370.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $340.00. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $363.00 and then at $365.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $354.525 and then at $352.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.