Hogs
Price action: August lean hogs rose 82 1/2 cents to $108.175 and near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The hog futures market saw some fresh technical buying interest from the speculators today. August lean hog futures’ discount to the cash hog index also supported futures today.
The latest CME lean hog index is down another 11 cents to $110.26 as of July 31. Tuesday’s projected cash hog index price (for Aug. 1) is down 27 cents at $109.99. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote today is $112.90. The noon report today showed pork cutout value up $2.19 at $119.13, led by gains in hams. Movement at midday was 124.56 loads.
Technical analysis: Lean hog futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, trading has turned sideways and choppy. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close August prices above solid chart resistance at $110.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $105.00. First resistance is seen at the July high of $108.90 and then at $110.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $106.20 and then at $105.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle rose 77 1/2 cents to $230.90, near the session high. August feeder cattle gained 82 1/2 cents to $335.40, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets saw some speculator buying interest amid cash and beef market fundamentals that are still solid. Live cattle futures’ steep discounts to the cash market continue to limit selling interest, even at elevated price levels.
USDA’s official cash cattle average trading price last week was $243.17, which is a record high and compares to $239.38 for the average cash trade the week prior. The noon report today showed Choice-grade boxed beef cutout value up 15 cents to $363.37, while Select grade fell 27 cents to $340.23. Movement at midday was 60 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $23.14.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and have regained momentum. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close August futures above resistance at the contract high of $233.75. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $225.00. First resistance is seen at $233.75 and then at $235.00. First support is seen at $230.00 and then at $228.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at the contract high of $340.625. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $330.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $338.125 and then at $340.625. First support is seen at $333.00 and then at $330.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.